预见大都市未来:破解不确定性的战略预测方法论

FORESEEING THE FUTURE OF METROPOLISES: STRATEGIC FORECASTING METHODOLOGY TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY

全球未来发展的不确定性增加,大都市战略编制面临更大挑战,对相应的预测分析方法提出新要求。本文针对“如何利用分析方法来破解未来城市发展的不确定性”这一命题,建立预见大都市未来的“5维48法”战略预测方法论。“对象认知”维度基于城市战略的未来演进趋势,提出了逻辑推理趋势分析、德尔菲开放式讨论和数据模型的预测分析方法。“角色明确”维度提出全球城市战略数据库、城市经营实现公私合营、公众参与获取社会支撑,形成动态空间模型。“目标博弈”维度提出竞争分析确定目标、目标制定与调整策略、过程管理矩阵分析的方法。“动力争夺”维度以技术预见获取科技发展动力,依托群体智能的数据挖掘来整合创新。“路径探寻”维度提出结合线性与非线性路径、情景分析实现多元推演、数据平台整合模拟仿真方法。在五大类预测分析方法的研究评估基础上,本文总结了战略五维方法论,其具有统筹全局、动态调整、主动灵活的特点,该方法论将在公私合营的智能平台中持续完善。

With the increasing uncertainty of future urban development, the formulation of urban spatial strategic planning is faced with greater challenges, which puts forward new requirements for related forecasting and analysis methods. Aiming at the proposition of “how to use analysis methods to address the uncertainty of future urban development”, this paper establishes a strategic forecasting methodology, namely the “5-Dimension & 48-Approach”, that foresees the future of metropolises. Based on the future evolution trend of urban strategy, and from the dimension of “object cognition”, it proposes a forecasting and analysis method composed of logical reasoning trend analysis, Delphi open discussion, and data model. From the dimension of “clear role”, it proposes a global urban strategy database, publicprivate partnership in urban management, and public participation to obtain social support, thus forming a dynamic spatial model. From the dimension of “goal game”, it puts forward the methods of determining goals through competitive analysis, formulating goals and adjusting strategies, and matrix analysis of process management. From the dimension of “power competition”, it uses technology foresight to obtain scientific and technological development impetus,and relies on data mining of crowd intelligence to integrate innovations. From the dimension of “path exploration”, it proposes a simulation method combining linear and nonlinear paths,scenario analysis to achieve multiple deduction,and data platform integration and simulation.Based on the research and evaluation of the five types of forecasting and analysis methods, this paper summarizes the strategic five-dimensional methodology which is characterized by overall planning, dynamic adjustment, and proactive flexibility. The methodology will be continuously improved in the intelligent platform of publicprivate partnership.