港口船舶污染海洋环境风险分级评估研究

Study on risk grading assessment of marine environment pollution by port ships

构建科学、长效的事故风险排查和治理机制,实现船舶污染海洋环境风险分级监管有着非常重要的意义。在风险管理理论基础上分析操作性和事故性两方面污染风险,通过进化法和德尔菲专家法结合对关键指标筛选,构建包括人员、技术工程、环境、管理、应急五大因素的船舶污染海洋环境风险评价指标体系。使用云模型和层次分析法建立固有风险与现实风险相结合的风险分级评估模型,并绘制风险等级云图将定性风险因素量化表达。同时结合实例来验证模型的有效性和适用性,为港口企业风险分级提供标准,进而为后续进行分级监管、提高有针对性的防控能力奠定基础。

It is of great significance to establish a scientific and long-term mechanism for accident risk investigation and control,and to realize the classified supervision of marine environmental risk caused by ship pollution.The operational and accident risks were analyzed based on the risk management theory,and the key indicators were screened through the combination of the evolutionary method and the Delphi expert method,the risk assessment index system of marine environment caused by ship pollution including personnel,technical engineering,environment,management and emergency response was constructed.Cloud model and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)were used to establish a risk grading assessment model combining inherent risk with real risk,and the qualitative risk factors were expressed quantitatively by drawing the cloud map of risk grade.At the same time,the validity and applicability of the model were verified by an example,which provides a standard for the risk classification of Port Enterprises,and then lays the foundation for the follow-up grading supervision and improving the ability of prevention and control.