京藏高速民和至西宁段冬季路面与地面最低温度变化特征及相关性研究

Variation Characteristics and Correlation of Minimum Temperature Between Road Surface and Ground Surface in Winter in Minheto Xining Section of Beijing-Tibet Expressway

使用2018—2020年冬季12月—次年2月京藏高速民和至西宁段常规气象观测站和交通气象观测站逐日逐时气象观测资料,采用统计学线性趋势相关方法,对冬季逐月平均路面最低温度和地面最低温度的日变化特征及其相关关系进行了分析,建立了4站冬季各月路面最高和最低温度与地面最高和最低温度的相关性方程,旨在为路面温度精细化预报服务提供参考。结果表明:京藏高速民和至西宁路段4站冬季各月平均路面最低温度和地面最低温度达到最低值和最高值的时间并非完全相同;平均地面最低温度日出/日落的变化速率要高于平均路面最低温度,且平均地面最低温度的变化幅度要比路面最低温度变化幅度大。平均地面最低温度的最高值比路面最低温度的最高值超前1~2 h;一般情况下,常规气象观测站逐小时地面最低温度<0℃的时间维持15~18 h,交通气象观测站路面最低温度<0℃的时间维持8~22 h。应用统计学方法建立的朝阳站、汉庄站、高庙桥站和老鸦峡站最高和最低路面温度与最高和最低地面温度相关性方程具有很好的实际应用价值,检验预报准确率较高。

Based on the daily and hourly meteorological observation data from conventional and traffic meteorological stations from December to February of the following year during 2018—2020,the diurnal variation characteristics and correlation of the monthly average road surface minimum temperature and the ground surface minimum temperature in winter were analyzed by using statistical linear trend correlation method,and the correlation equations between the maximum and minimum road surface temperature and the maximum and minimum ground surface temperature at four stations in winter were established,in order to provide a reference for fine forecasting service of road surface temperature.The results showed that the time when the monthly average road surface minimum temperature and ground surface minimum temperature reached the minimum and maximum values at the four stations of the Minhe to Xining section of Beijing-Tibet expressway in winter were not exactly identical.The sunrise/sunset variation rate of the average ground surface minimum temperature was higher than that of the average road surface minimum temperature,and the variation range of the average ground surface minimum temperature was larger than that of the road surface minimum temperature.The maximum value of average ground minimum temperature is 1~2 h ahead of the maximum value of average road minimum temperature.In general,the hourly ground surface minimum temperature of conventional meteorological observation stations is less than 0℃for 15 to 18 h,and the hourly road surface minimum temperature of traffic meteorological observation stations is less than 0℃for 8 to 22 h.The correlation equations between the maximum and minimum surface temperatures at Chaoyang station,Hanzhuang station,Gaomiaoqiao station and Laoyaxia station established by statistical method have good practical application value and the accuracy of test prediction is high.