哈萨克斯坦北部伊希姆河径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应

Response of the Ishim River Streamflow in Northern Kazakhstanto Climate Change and Human Activities

基于1933—2016年哈萨克斯坦北部伊希姆河彼得罗巴甫洛斯克水文站流量观测数据以及流域内格点气象数据,利用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验、相关普查法和累积量斜率变化率比较法等方法,探讨了气候变化背景下伊希姆河流量变化及其主要驱动因子。结果显示:(1)伊希姆河流域近84年气温和降水呈上升趋势,且在20世纪70年代后增加趋势更加明显。(2)伊希姆河流量年内分布不均,年际流量变化总体呈下降趋势,但趋势不明显。(3)伊希姆河流量受流域内降水和气温共同影响,其中降水与流量相关性最大,且降水的变化对流量补给具有滞后性,6—9月气温对同时期流量影响较大。(4)T1时段(1969—1996年)和T2时段(1997—2016年)与T时段(1933—1968年)相比,气候变化对流量减少的贡献率分别为16.09%和44.83%,而人类活动对流量减少的贡献率为83.91%和55.17%。流域内水资源的开发及利用、人口数量和土地利用方式的变化等人类活动因素在很大程度上影响了伊希姆河流量。

Based on the streamflow observation data of the Petropavlovsk hydrological station of the Ishim River in northern Kazakhstan from 1933 to 2016 and meteorological data of the grid points in the basin,the streamflow variation of the Ishim River and its main driving factors in the context of climate change were explored by using the linear trend method,Mann-Kendall test,correlation census method and cumulative slope rate of change comparison method.The results show that:(1)Temperature and precipitation in the Ishim River basin have been increasing in the last 84 years,and the increasing trend is more obvious after the 1970s.(2)The streamflow of the Ishim River is unevenly distributed within the year,and the interannual streamflow variation generally shows a decreasing trend,but the trend is not apparent.(3)The streamflow of Ishim River is influenced by precipitation and temperature in the basin,among which precipitation has the strongest correlation with streamflow,and the change of precipitation has a lag on streamflow recharge.The temperature in June-September has a more significant influence on streamflow in the same period.(4)The contribution of climate change to the decrease of streamflow are 16.09%and 44.83%in the T1 period(1969-1996)and the T2 period(1997-2016)compared with the T period(1933-1968),while the contribution of human activities to the decrease of streamflow are 83.91%and 55.17%,respectively.Anthropogenic factors such as development and utilization of water resources in the basin,variations in population size and land use patterns largely influence the streamflow of the Ishim River.