基于三方竞争的负面舆情政府干预分析

Government Intervention of Negative Public Opinion Based on Tripartite Competition

互联网中存在大量负面舆情信息,分析负面舆情参与主体之间的竞争关系,对政府监管舆情具有重要意义。为研究负面舆情的演化规律,借助SIR模型模拟事件中网民状态的变化过程,得出符合实例发展时模型内的参数值。将SIR模型中的感染率(I)作为共享资源的内禀增长率,恢复率(R)作为IG食饵和IG捕食者的死亡率引入IGP模型,构建“政府-营销号-网民”三方的竞争关系模型,利用Matlab仿真软件比较了不同捕食率和不同转化率下的负面舆情传播过程。仿真结果表明,政府在通过各种方法对舆情进行监管时,将重心放在加大自身宣传力度、传播事件真相,适当鼓励各立场网民发言,增加官方媒体数量以及发文频率,更有助于控制舆情。

There is a large amount of negative public opinion in the Internet, and it is important for the government to monitor public opinion by analyzing the competing relationships between the different people involved in it. In order to study the evolution process of negative public opinion, this paper employs the SIR model to simulate the changing process of the state of netizens, and derives the values of parameters within this model when they conform to the development of the example. Subsequently, the infection rate(I) in the SIR model is introduced into the IGP model as the endogenous growth rate of shared resources and the recovery rate(R) is used as the mortality rate of IG bait and IG predators to construct a tripartite competition model of “government-content farm-netizens”. And then uses the Matlab to compare the process of spreading negative public opinion with different predation rates and different conversion rates. The simulation results show that when the government uses various methods to monitor the public opinion, focusing on increasing its own public relation efforts to disseminate the truth about the incident, appropriately encouraging netizens of all positions to speak out,and increasing the number and frequency of official media releases will be helpful.