商品种类对出口价格汇率传递效率的异质性影响分析——基于固定效应模型

Analysis of the Heterogeneous Influence of Commodity Types on the Exchange Rate Transmission Efficiency of Export Prices——Based on a Fixed Effects Model

2019年新冠疫情爆发至今,人民币汇率经历了近2年的贬值周期,2022年4月开始又重新进入上升周期。汇率作为衡量一国本币价值的指标,会直接影响到本国货物贸易进出口商品的价值,进而通过成本效应对本国国际收支与通货膨胀产生影响。而货物贸易收支也是国际收支中最重要的组成部分,近三年在我国国际收支平衡表中发生额占比均在60%以上,本文主要关注汇率波动对出口价格的传导机制,并将汇率与不同种类进出口商品相结合,分别构建变截距与变系数固定效应模型。研究发现2018年以来我国总体上出口价格汇率弹性在51.3%,在不控制时间固定效应的情况,不同种类商品的汇率传递效率存在巨大差异,商品间在汇率传递完全性和两极分化。在控制时间固定效应的情况下,大部分商品的出口价格汇率弹性在30%左右。疫情、贸易壁垒等不随个体变化因素对汇率传递效率有强烈影响。

Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2019,the RMB exchange rate has experienced a depreciation cycle for nearly 2 years,and has re-entered an upward cycle since April 2022.As an indicator to measure the value of a country’s local currency,the exchange rate will directly affect the value of the import and export of goods in the country’s trade in goods,and then affect the country’s balance of payments and inflation through the cost effect.The balance of payments in goods is also the most important part of the international balance of payments,accounting for more than 60%of my country’s balance of payments in the past three years.Combining the exchange rate with different types of import and export commodities,the variable intercept and variable coefficient fixed effect models are constructed respectively.The study found that since 2018,my country’s overall export price exchange rate elasticity has been 51.3%.Without controlling the time fixed effect,there are huge differences in the exchange rate transmission efficiency of different types of commodities,and the exchange rate transmission between commodities is complete and polarized.Under the control of time fixed effects,the exchange rate elasticity of export prices for most commodities is around 30%.Factors that do not vary with individuals,such as the epidemic and trade barriers,have a strong impact on the efficiency of exchange rate transmission.