基于Markov的列控中心多态动态可靠性分析

Multi-state and dynamic reliability analysis of TCC based on Markov

针对列控中心系统由冗余带来的动态时序特点和通信接口单元在实际工作环境中具有多种故障状态的问题,假设部件寿命和维修时间服从指数分布,且各单元相互独立,故障单元修复后的寿命仍服从指数分布。构建了基于马尔科夫的多状态热贮备可修系统可靠性模型,通过计算得到部件的稳态可用度、平均故障间隔时间、首次故障前平均时间、稳态故障频度、维修人员忙期稳态概率及可靠度函数等主要可靠性参数的解析表达式。最后,以CTCS-2级列控系统的列控中心为例,对该多状态热贮备可修系统可靠性解析模型进行了验证和分析。结果表明:随维修速率提高,部件的稳态可用度提高,部件的故障概率、稳态故障频度和维修人员忙期稳态概率降低;可为掌握列控中心在实际维修条件下的可靠性规律及合理开展列控中心维修工作提供技术支撑。

In the actual operation environment,the train control center(TCC) has dynamic timing characteristics due to structural redundancy,and the Communication Interface Unit(CIU) has multiple failure states.Moreover,the influence of the maintenance rate of the train control center was less considered in the reliability analysis in the current literature.In this article,taking each component of the train control center as the research object,assuming that the component life and maintenance time obey the exponential distribution,each unit was independent of each other,and the life of the fault unit after repair still obeys the exponential distribution,a reliability model method of multi-state hot standby repairable system based on Markov was proposed to analyze the reliability of the train control center.Firstly,the reliability model of the three-state hot standby repairable system was established based on the reliability model of the two-state hot standby repairable system.Secondly,the analytical expressions of main reliability parameters such as steady-state availability,mean time between failures(MTBF),mean time to the first failure(MTTFF),steady-state failure frequency,maintenance personnel busy period steady-state probability,and reliability function were calculated by using the model,the weak links of train control center were obtained,and the influence of maintenance rate on reliability parameters was analyzed.Finally,taking the train control center of CTCS-2 train control system as an example,the established reliability analytical model of the multi-state hot standby repairable train control center system was verified and analyzed.The results show that with the increasing maintenance rate,the steady-state availability of components and systems increases,and the failure probability,while steady-state failure frequency and maintenance personnel busy period the steady-state probability of components and systems decrease;Therefore,for the multi-state hot standby repairable train control center system,the established model can provide technical support for mastering the reliability law of the train control center under the actual maintenance conditions and reasonably carrying out the maintenance work of the train control center.