基于AHP-信息熵权-模糊集的岩溶塌陷风险评价

Karst collapse risk assessment based on AHP-EWM-FT

为解决岩溶场地建设项目的塌陷灾害问题,优化模糊评价以实现塌陷风险精准预估并建立治理流程。首先,引进层次模型法选取诱发因子与损伤因子共4个一级指标及19个二级指标,建立了岩溶塌陷风险评价指标体系;而后,引入模糊集理论(Fuzzy Theory,FT)构建评价指标模糊关系,分别根据层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)及信息熵权法(Entropy Weight Method,EWM)得出指标的主客观权重,耦合主客观权重得到最终权重,并依据三标度法引入比较算子评判指标突出度,从而建立二级岩溶塌陷风险评价模型;最后,将风险评价模型与未确知测度法从计算原理、操作性、适用性等多角度进行了对比分析,同时以昆明地铁5号线某岩溶场地站点为例实施评价。结果表明:模型所得结果与现场实际情况吻合,并与未确知测度法及层次分析法评价结果一致,根据风险等级提出相应的治理措施,处治效果良好;该模型量化定性指标,减少了评价主观性,重视不利指标突出值的影响,简化了计算步骤,有助于提高岩溶塌陷风险评价的准确性与适用性,进而指导岩溶场地上建(构)筑物的设计施工及灾害治理。

With the increase of urban space utilization rate,the number of projects to be built in karst sites is gradually increasing,so the risk assessment of karst collapse has become an urgent problem.Based on the systematic thinking,the article first used the hierarchical model method to select 19 indicators of induced factors and damage factors,constituting a secondary evaluation index system of karst collapse risk.Then the article used Fuzzy Theory(FT)to construct the fuzzy relationship of evaluation index.According to the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the Entropy Weight Method(EWM)respectively,We obtained the subjective weight and objective weight of the indicator and then coupled them to calculate the final weight.Finally,according to the three-scale method,the comparative operator is introduced to measure the impact of the terrible index,so as to establish a secondary evaluation model of karst collapse risk.The risk evaluation model is compared with the well-used Undetex Evaluation Model from the calculation principle,operability,applicability,and other aspects.This method is applied to evaluate a karst site in line 5 of the Kunming Metro,and the results are consistent with the actual situation and the evaluation results of the Undetex Evaluation Model and the Analytic Hierarchy Process.According to the risk assessment grade,the engineer proposed the corresponding management measures.The fine disposal results verify the feasibility and rationality of the evaluation model.The model quantifies qualitative indicators from theory and practice and reduces the subjectivity of evaluation.It pays attention to the impact of adverse indicators and simplifies the calculation steps.The evaluation results can provide a theoretical basis for the design and construction of construction(structure)buildings and disaster management on karst sites.