基于分数阶GM(1,N)模型的深圳市生活垃圾产生量预测

Prediction of municipal solid waste productionin Shenzhen based on fractional grey GM(1,N)model

城市生活垃圾的处理关乎城市环境卫生治理大局。针对人口、经济、消费结构和环保投入等要素对城市生活垃圾构成的复杂系统预测问题,选取深圳市2012—2019年生活垃圾产生量及9个相关因素数据进行灰色关联分析,筛选出灰色关联度较大的食品消费、人均支配收入、年底常住人口和衣着消费共4个因素作为因变量建立FGM(1,5)模型,利用智能优化算法寻找出FGM(1,5)模型的最优阶r为0.5310,并与经典灰色模型的模拟结果对比,结果表明FGM(1,5)模型模拟精度较高,预测性能较好。最后利用FGM(1,5)模型预测深圳市2020—2025年的生活垃圾产生量,期望能为未来城市生活垃圾产生量的系统分析、预测以及环境保护政策的制定提供依据。

While innovating and exploring the green development model of waste classification and reduction,Shenzhen still faces prominent problems such as rapid growth of total waste,relative lack of treatment technology,and difficult planning of new facilities.This paper aims to solve the complex system prediction problem of the urban environment composed of population,economic construction,consumption structure,and environmental protection input,and help Shenzhen to achieve sustainable development goals.The data of Municipal Solid Waste production and related factors in Shenzhen from 2012 to 2019 were selected.Firstly,the grey correlation degree between domestic waste production and its influencing factors in Shenzhen is calculated by the grey correlation method.The four factors that have a great impact on the production of Municipal Solid Waste in Shenzhen are food consumption,per capita disposable income,year-end resident population,and clothing consumption,The corresponding grey correlation degrees are 0.9580,0.9390,0.9350,and 0.9283 respectively.The FGM(1,5)model is established based on these four related factors.Then,based on the relevant theory of fractional-order operator of the grey system,the intelligent optimization algorithm is used to minimize the■,and the optimal order r=0.5310 of FGM(1,5)model is obtained.The simulation results are compared with the classical grey GM(1,1)model,FGM(1,1)model,and traditional GM(1,5)model.The results show that the■of FGM(1,5)model is 1.62%,which has high simulation accuracy and good prediction performance.Finally,the FGM(1,5)model is used to predict the amount of Municipal Solid Waste generated in Shenzhen from 2020 to 2025,and it is estimated that the amount of Municipal Solid Waste generated in Shenzhen will reach 11472300 tons in 2025.It is expected to provide a basis for the systematic analysis and prediction of Municipal Solid Waste production and the formulation of environmental protection policies in the future.