我国居家养老服务资金政策的区域效应

Regional Effects of China’s Fund Policies for Home-Based Aged Care

基于区域差异对我国居家养老服务资金政策效应进行评估。首先,选择合适的指标,采取聚类分析方法划分居家养老服务资金保障政策区域;其次,基于区域划分,评估我国居家养老服务资金保障政策的区域“应然”;最后,比较“应然”与“实然”,得到我国居家养老服务资金保障政策效应的区域评价。研究结论:我国31个省级行政区(港澳台除外)可以分为六种不同的居家养老服务资金保障政策区域。第一、三类地区的居家养老服务业发展良好,需要在原有基础上优化供给结构,提高发展质量;第二、四类地区尚未进入人口老龄化阶段,主要是科学预测未来,做好养老服务规划和建设;第五、六类地区由于人口老龄化严重,需要通过政策支持进一步加快发展居家养老服务,第五类地区需要中央与地方的支持、政府与市场的合作,第六类地区宜探索低成本养老服务模式。

Based on regional differences, this paper evaluated the policy effect of home-based aged care funds in China. First of all, we selected appropriate indicators and adopted the cluster analysis method to divide regions of fund guarantee policy for home-based aged care. Secondly, based on this regional division, we pointed out what should be done in certain areas. Finally, by comparing“what should be done”and “what has actually been done”, we can evaluate the policy effect of homebased aged care at the regional level. The conclusions are as follows. 31 provincial-level administrative regions(excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) can be divided into six different categories in terms of guarantee policies for home-based aged care. The home care service industry is developing well in category Ⅰ and Ⅲ regions, so it is necessary to optimize their supply structure and improve the quality of development. Category Ⅱ and Ⅳ regions have not yet entered the stage of population aging and should mainly focus on scientific prediction as well as good planning and development of elder care services. Category Ⅴ and Ⅵ regions need policy support to further accelerate the development of home-based care services due to severe population aging, of which category Ⅴ region needs support from both central and local governments and collaboration between the government and the market, whereas category Ⅵ region is suitable to explore low-cost service models.