流通业发展促进农民收入消费双提升了吗?——来自283个地级市的经验证据

Has the Development of Circulation Industry Promoted the Dual-Increasing of Farmers’Income and Consumption?——Empirical Evidence from 283 Prefecture-level Cities

在畅通国内大循环背景下,流通业作为国民经济的主导产业,对农民收入与消费的提升具有重要影响。在理论分析基础上,采用2010—2020年283个地级市面板数据,运用双向固定效应模型和空间杜宾模型,系统考察流通业发展对农民收入消费双提升的影响效应。研究发现:流通业发展可促进农民收入消费双提升,在利用地形起伏度作为工具变量进行内生性检验后结果依然稳健;流通业发展可通过促进产业结构升级、增加非农就业人数来促进农民收入消费双提升;流通业发展对农民收入消费双提升具有“本地-邻地”的空间溢出效应;在西部地区、数字经济发展水平高的地区以及低收入水平群体中,流通业发展对农民收入消费双提升的促进作用更强。因此,为充分发挥流通业对农民收入消费双提升的驱动效应,应进一步加强农村地区流通基础设施建设;应提高流通业发展促进产业结构升级与吸纳非农就业的能力;应增强流通业发展对邻近城市农民收入消费双提升的辐射带动作用,并注重城市间流通业发展的协同与统筹;应在不同地区、不同收入水平群体中实施差异化的流通业发展战略。

Under the background of unimpeded domestic circulation,circulation industry,as the leading industry of national economy,has an important impact on the improvement of farmers’income and consumption.Based on the theoretical analysis and the panel data of 283 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2020,the authors systematically investigate the influence of the development of circulation industry on the dual-increasing of farmers’income and consumption by using the two-way fixed effect model and the spatial Dubin model.It is found that:the development of circulation industry can promote the dualincreasing of farmers’income and consumption,and the results are still robust after the endogeneity test using topographic relief as an instrumental variable;the development of circulation industry can promote the dual-increasing of farmers’income and consumption by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and increasing the number of non-agricultural employment;the development of circulation industry presents a"local-neighborhood"spatial spillover effect on the dual-increasing of farmers’income and consumption;and in western regions,regions with high digital economy development level and low-income groups,the development of circulation industry plays a stronger role in promoting the dual-increasing of farmers’income and consumption.Therefore,in order to give full play to the driving effect of the circulation industry in promoting the dual-increasing of farmers’income and consumption,we should,first,further strengthen the construction of circulation infrastructure in rural areas;second,we should improve the ability of circulation industry development to promote industrial structure upgrading and absorb non-agricultural employment;third,we should strengthen the radiation-driven effect of circulation industry development on promoting the dual-increasing of farmers’income and consumption in neighboring cities,and pay attention to the synergy and coordination of circulation industry development among cities;and fourth,we should implement differentiated strategy for the development of circulation industry in different regions and for people with different level of income.