县域收养性社会福利单位床位配置非均衡研究

Research on Disequilibrium of Beds Allocation in Adopting Social Welfare Institutions in County Area

基于《中国县域统计年鉴》2000—2019年数据对县域收养性社会福利单位床位配置非均衡进行了研究,研究结果表明:2000—2019年县域收养性社会福利单位床位配置水平大幅提升,尤其是配置水平较低县域的改善幅度更大;Gini系数和Theil指数波动下降,区域内差异是造成总体差异的主导因素;匮乏水平大幅下降,原因包括配置水平提高与配置差异缩小;床位配置存在正的空间自相关,一些县域存在空间溢出和空间竞争关系;极化水平波动下降,Wolfson指数降幅大于DER指数即两极分化改善幅度更大;认同性是DER指数的主要解释因素且贡献率略有提高,但疏离性下降主导了其下降趋势。建议在缩小区域间差异的同时重点关注区域内差异,提升统筹层次,发挥高配置县域的示范扩散作用,提高收养性社会福利单位自我发展能力,引导社会资本提供社会化收养服务。

Based on the data of China County Statistical Yearbook from 2000 to 2019,an empirical study is conducted on the disequilibrium of beds allocation in adopting social welfare institutions in county area in China.The results show that the level of beds allocation in adopting social welfare institutions in county area increased significantly from 2000 to 2019,especially in counties with lower allocation levels.The Gini coefficient and Theil index show a downward trend in volatility,and within-group differences are the dominant factors causing overall differences.The scarcity level has dropped significantly due to the increase in allocation levels and the reduction in allocation differences.There is obvious positive spatial autocorrelation in beds allocation.Some counties have spatial spillover and spatial competition effects on their neighbors.The level of polarization also fluctuates and declines.The Wolfson index declines more than the DER index.Identification is the main explanatory factor of the DER index and the contribution rate has increased slightly,but the decline in alienation dominates the downward trend of the DER index.It is suggested to pay more attention to the differences between the counties in the same region while narrowing the differences between regions,upgrade the pooling level of construction investment,give full play to the role of demonstration and diffusion among counties with higher level of beds allocation,improve the self-development capacity of adopting social welfare institutions and guide social capital to provide socialized adoption services.