基于结构方程模型的合并村庄脆弱性形成机理研究——以宁夏永宁县试验区为个案

Formation Mechanism of Vulnerability of Merged Villages Based on Structural Equation Model-A Case Study of the Yongning County Pilot Area in Ningxia

村庄合并是对原村镇空间结构与组织形态的重大变革,是村民生计方式与社会结构的重大调整.初建阶段的合并村庄通常比较脆弱,受到外部扰动时其脆弱性就会通过敏感性和适应力状况表达出来.运用结构方程模型探索、分析宁夏永宁县合并村庄试验区脆弱性形成机理,在脆弱性潜在变量扰动、敏感性、适应力的相互作用过程中,扰动是外因变量,影响着内因变量敏感性、适应力,敏感性是内因变量,受扰动、适应力影响,适应力受扰动影响时是内因变量,影响敏感性时是外因变量.由潜在变量间的影响效果值判断,扰动对合并村庄的发展至关重要,被扰动后合并村庄敏感性较强,适应力相对较弱.从脆弱性观测变量标准化效应值判断,主要影响因素6项,影响力由强到弱依次是养老保险、打工路耗、政策兑现、低保水平、工资拖欠、政民互动;次要影响因素8项,影响力由强到弱依次是义务教育、基础设施、生活成本、就业忧虑、对外交通、受挫应对、教育年限.

Village merging is a major change to the spatial structure and organization form of the original villages,and is a major adjustment in the way of livelihood and social struc-ture for villager.Vulnerability is the basic attribute of the merged village when it is in the initial stage of construction.When it is disturbed by external factors,the vulnerability of the merged village will be expressed through sensitivity and adaptability.In this paper,structural equation model is used to explore and analyze the formation mechanism of vulnerability in the experimental area of Yongning County,Ningxia.In the interaction process of potential vulnerability variables,such as disturbance,sensitivity and adaptability,disturbance is an external variable,which affects sensitivity and adaptability.Sensitivity is an internal variable,which is affected by disturbance and adaptability.Adaptability is an internal variable when it is affected by disturbance the response sensitivity is an external variable.Judging from the effect value of potential variables,the disturbance is very important to the development about the merged village.After being disturbed,the sensitivity of the merged village is strong and the adaptability is relatively weak.According to the standardized effect value of vulner-ability observation variables,there are six main influencing factors,the order of influence is endowment insurance,working road consumption,policy fulfillment,minimum insurance level,wage arrears,and interaction between the government and the people.There are 8 secondary influencing factors,the influencing factors from strong to weak are compulsory education,in-frastructure,cost of living,employment worries,foreign transportation,frustration response and education years.