运输结构对交通运输碳排放影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Transportation Structure on Transportation Carbon Emissions

为探究运输结构对交通运输碳排放的影响机制、影响效应及其区域和时间的异质性特征,选取2011—2020年全国除西藏、港澳台以外的30个省、市、自治区交通运输部门的各类能源消费数据,结合我国区域发展空间布局,采用“自上而下”的方法计算东部地区、中部地区、西部地区、东北地区(四大板块)的交通运输碳排放量,通过构建面板数据双向固定效应模型,分析“四大板块”运输结构变化对碳排放的影响,提出我国运输结构调整的对策建议。研究结果表明:(1)推进运输结构优化调整,有助于降低交通运输行业的能耗强度,从而降低交通运输碳排放水平;(2)全样本估计结果显示铁路公路货运比每提升1个标准差,交通运输碳排放将降低4.77%;(3)分时段样本估计结果进一步揭示出2018年以来实施的“公转铁”政策对降低交通运输碳排放的效果更为显著;(4)分区域样本估计结果印证了运输结构对交通运输碳排放的影响效应具有明显的异质性特征,需要分区域、差异化制定运输结构优化调整政策。

In order to explore the impact mechanism and effect of transportation structure on transportation carbon emissions,as well as its regional and temporal heterogeneity characteristics,based on the various energy consumption data of transportation departments in 30 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan from 2011 to 2020,according to the spatial layout of China′s regional development,this paper used the"top-down"method to calculate transportation carbon emissions of the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions(four major plates).Then,a two-way fixed effect model of panel data was constructed to analyze the impact of changes in transportation structure on carbon emissions of the four major plates.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions for the adjustment of transportation structure in China were proposed.The results showed that:(1)the optimization and adjustment of transportation structure would help to lower the energy consumption intensity of the transportation industry,thus reducing the transportation carbon emissions level;(2)the full sample estimation results indicated that transportation carbon emissions would be reduced by4.77%as one standard deviation increasing in the ratio of rail freight to highway freight;(3)the timebased sample estimation results further revealed that the"road-to-rail"policy performed since 2018had a more significant effect on reducing the transportation carbon emissions;(4)the estimation results of subregional samples confirmed that the impact of transportation structure on transportation carbon emissions had obvious heterogeneity characteristics,in particularly,it would be necessary to formulate differentiated transportation structure adjustment policies according to local conditions.