碳达峰目标下我国客运业发展规模与趋势分析

Scale and Trend for Passenger Transport of China with Carbon Peaking Goal

为研究城市化率提升和2030年碳达峰目标背景下我国客运业发展趋势及减碳策略,首先基于城市间、城市内、农村公共交通及私家车周转量数据,分析了我国客运业发展现状及基于2019年数据的客运结构;然后采用考虑人口和单位人口旅客周转量的增长率法,构建了居民机动化出行规模推算模型,预测了2025—2035年我国客运需求规模;最后在此基础上设置了未来客运结构情景,以研究2030年客运结构调整的减碳策略。研究结果表明,2019年我国人均机动化出行距离大致为5991km;私家车出行占比达46.76%,城市间客运占比为34.87%,城市内及农村地区客运占比分别为12.38%,5.99%;此外,预测得到2030年、2035年我国旅客周转量中值分别为10.17万亿人公里、11.08万亿人公里。情景分析表明,我国客运业减排工作重点在于客运结构的调整:一是优化城市间客运结构,促进营运性公路、民航转铁路,扩大铁路客运占比;二是促进私人交通向公共交通转移,扩大高效率的公共交通占比。在上述客运需求预测规模及客运结构设定情景下,2030年我国客运业碳排放量有望降低9%~15%。

In order to study the development trend and carbon reduction strategies of China′s passenger transport industry under the background of urbanization rate increasing and China’s carbon peaking goal in2030,based on the passenger turnover data of inter-urban,intra-urban,rural public transport and private cars,this paper analyzed the development status of China′s passenger transport industry and the passenger transport structure based on 2019 data.Using the growth rate method considering population and passenger turnover per unit population,a model for calculating the scale of residents’motorized travel was constructed to predict the scale of China′s passenger transport demand from 2025 to 2035.Based on the analysis of passenger transport structure and demand scale,the future passenger transport structure scenarios were set to study the carbon reduction strategies of passenger transport structure restructuring in 2030.The result showed that in 2019,the per capita motorized travel distance in China was around 5991km,the proportion of private car travel was 46.76%;the proportion of inter-urban passenger transport was 34.87%,while the proportion of intra-urban and rural passenger transport was12.38%and 5.99%respectively.In addition,the mid-values of China′s passenger turnover in 2030 and2035 were predicted to be 10.17 trillion passenger-kilometers and 11.08 trillion passenger-kilometers respectively.The scenario analysis shows that the focus of emission reduction in China′s passenger transport industry lies in the adjustment of passenger transport structure:firstly,optimizing the structure of passenger transport between cities,promoting the conversion of operational highway and civil aviation into railway to expand the proportion of railway transport;secondly,promoting the transfer of private transport to public transport and increasing the share of efficient public transport.Under the above forecast scale of passenger demand and setting scenarios of passenger transport structure,the carbon emissions of China’s passenger transport industry is expected to be reduced by 9%~15%in 2030.