四川省水电开发基地水电开发程度评估

Hydropower development degree evaluation of Sichuan hydropower development base

以四川省雅砻江流域和大渡河流域两个重要水电开发基地为例,采用水利水电统计数据,在流域分割的基础上,结合上下游空间关系和流域水电开发指标总体水平,利用空间自相关分析方法,构建了水电开发程度综合评估体系;基于流域水电开发规划情况、土壤侵蚀、地质灾害、水质监测和鱼类资源等数据,分析评估了不同水电开发程度对流域生态环境的影响。结果表明:水电开发密度、水电开发强度等指标具有明显的空间异质性和局部聚集性,其中水电开发强度、流域装机容量与流域库区的土地利用类型变化呈现显著的相关性;不同水电开发程度等级的水电开发指标呈现显著的差异性,证明了该水电开发程度综合评估体系的合理性。

The two important hydropower development bases in Sichuan, the Yalong River Basin and Dadu River Basin, were taken as examples to construct a comprehensive evaluation system for the degree of hydropower development, in which the spatial cluster analysis method was adopted using the statistical data of water resources and hydropower. The spatial relations between upstream and downstream and the overall level of watershed hydropower development indicators were combined based on watershed segmentation. The impacts of different hydropower development degree on ecological environment were analyzed considering the data of development plans, soil erosion, geological hazards, water quality monitoring and fishery resources. The results show that the spatial heterogeneity and local agglomeration of indicators, such as hydropower development density and hydropower development intensity, are obvious. The hydropower development intensity and the total installed capacity of the basin show a significant correlation with the change of the land use type in the reservoir area. The hydropower development indicators of different grades also show significant differences, indicating the rationality of comprehensive evaluation system for hydropower development.