双循环背景下我国新基建经济效应的理论与实证分析

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Economic Eff ects of New Infrastructure in China with the Dual Circulation

在我国经济结构转型升级的关键期,受中美贸易摩擦和新冠疫情的双重冲击,新基建是经济逆周期的重要策略。文章利用“乘数-加速数”模型对新基建投资模式在相关产业链中的经济效应进行理论与实证分析。相比传统基建,新基建乘数效应更大,但在投资中仍要平衡新旧基建,合理优化融资模式。

In the critical period of China’s economic structural transformation and upgrading,developing new infrastructure is an important strategy for economic countercyclicality with the impact of the trade frictions between China and the United States and the COVID-19 pandemic.The article uses the“multiplier-accelerator”model to theoretically and empirically analyze the economic eff ects of the investment model of new infrastructure in the related industrial chains.Compared with traditional infrastructure,the multiplier eff ect of new infrastructure is greater,but it is still necessary to balance the old and new infrastructure in investment and to reasonably optimize the fi nancing models.