出国留学风险评估模型的构建与应用--基于英美两国的评价

International education risk assessment model construction and application: based on the evaluation of Britain and America

留学风险评估工具是当前营造安全留学环境、推动留学发展的重要支撑,也是国家教育对外开放战略的重要保障。本研究基于感知风险理论,在德尔菲法基础上搭建了出国留学风险评价指标体系,将留学风险分为安全类风险和教育类风险;依据层次分析法,构建了出国留学风险评估模型,并以模糊综合评价法对留学目的地进行风险等级评估;以美国和英国两个留学目的国为案例进行实证研究,验证了出国留学风险评估模型的可行性和应用性。为合理评估留学风险,保障留学教育质量,我国要增强留学生风险识别意识,开展留学安全教育;建立风险预警模型,全面进行风险评估;完善风险管理路径,搭建社会支持系统。

A reasonable risk assessment tool for overseas study is an important support for creating a safe environment and promoting the development of overseas study, as well as a necessary guarantee for the national education opening up strategy. Based on perceived risk theory, the establishment of risk evaluation index system is divided into safety risk and education risk by Delphi method. Further, using analytic hierarchy process, the risk assessment model of overseas study is constructed, and the risk level of main destinations is evaluated with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The feasibility and applicability of the model are verified by the empirical study of the important countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom. In order to reasonably assess the risk of study abroad and ensure the quality of students′ education, our country should strengthen the awareness of risk identification among international students and carry out education on study abroad safety, establish a risk warning model to conduct comprehensive risk assessment, improve the risk management path and build a social support system.