基于前景理论的高速铁路客流分配方法研究

Passenger Flow Assignment Method of High Speed Railway Based on Prospect Theory

针对长期以来沿用的理性人假设在客流分配中的局限性,为体现旅客的认知更新过程和自适应出行选择行为,基于前景理论修正完善传统阻抗函数,建立动态客流分配模型,设计遍历列车开行方案的高速铁路容量限制-增量分配算法,采用编程软件实现旅客多次出行的动态客流分配。选取深武高速铁路线路为研究对象,探究预售期内需求强度随时间的变化机理,分析列车开行方案调整后基于完全理性和有限理性客流分配的差异。结果表明:高度敏感型旅客的抢票时序调整行为最为显著,且最难以稳定;相较于完全理性,基于不同有限理性程度的列车总载客人数有所增加,而区间席位能力利用率有所降低,表明通过有限理性动态刻画旅客心理更加符合实际,从而提高了客流分配结果的精度。

Given the limitations of the rational man hypothesis applied for a long time in passenger fow assignment,this paper modified and improved the traditional impedance function based on the prospect theory and built a dynamic model of passenger fow assignment to refect the cognitive updating process and adaptive travel choice behaviors of passengers.Additionally,the capacity limit-increment assignment algorithm of high speed railways that traverses train operation plans was designed,and the dynamic passenger fow assignment of passengers’multiple trips was realized by programming software.Taking Shenzhen-Wuhan High Speed Railway as the research object,this study explored the change mechanism of demand intensity over time during the pre-sale period and analyzed the differences in passenger flow assignment based on complete rationality and bounded rationality after the adjustment of train operation plans.The results show that the timing adjustment behavior of highly sensitive passengers is the most significant and the most difficult to stabilize.In comparison with complete rationality,the total number of train passengers based on different degrees of bounded rationality increases,while the utilization rate of interval seat capacity decreases.This indicates that it is more realistic to depict passengers’psychology dynamically through bounded rationality,thus improving the accuracy of passenger fow assignment results.