长野新干线视角下交通运输与经济增长关系研究

Relationship between Transportation and Economic Growth from The Perspective of Nagano Shinkansen

交通运输与经济增长之间存在辩证统一关系,研究利用迪克西特-斯蒂格利茨-克鲁格曼模型对日本长野新干线进行理论和现实验证,提出交通运输发展正向促进经济增长在于交通运输发展能否有效降低运输成本、扩大市场规模,以及交通运输供给结构能否与经济社会发展阶段相匹配、相协调;长野新干线的开通提高了长野—东京的时空收敛效应,但对其支柱产业——旅游业的发展造成巨大冲击,旅游损失估测值为15 561亿日元,约占同一时期长野县旅游收入的20.69%。交通基础设施发展所带来的交通便利性并未给长野县带来经济增长,反而造成“后奥运效应”,这是运输发展规划与地区经济社会发展即运输需求未能实现“时空匹配”的结果,研究结论对交通运输与经济协调发展具有重要借鉴意义。

Considering the dialectical unity between transportation and economic growth, this paper used the DixitStiglitz-Krugman(DSK) model to verify the Nagano Shinkansen in Japan both theoretically and practically. It suggests that the positive promotion of economic growth by transportation development depends on whether transportation development can effectively reduce transportation costs and expand the market size and whether the transportation supply structure can match and coordinate with the development stage of the economy and society. The opening of the Nagano Shinkansen has improved the space-time convergence effect of the Nagano-Tokyo journey. Nevertheless, it has caused a huge negative impact on the development of Nagano’s pillar industry tourism, and the consequent estimated tourism loss was 1 556.1 billion yen, accounting for 20.69% of Nagano’s tourism revenue during the same period. Instead of bringing economic growth to Nagano, the transportation convenience provided by the development of transportation infrastructure has created a “post-Olympic effect”. This is the result of the failure to achieve a “space-time match” between transportation development planning and the regional economic and social development, i.e., transportation demand. The conclusion can provide an important reference for the coordinated development of transportation and economy.