我国北方地区交通运输-绿色经济-科技创新协调发展实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Coordinated Development among Transportation, Green Economy, and Scientific and Technological Innovation in Northern China

选用我国东北地区、华北地区、西北地区13省(区市)2011—2020年的数据,从交通运输、绿色经济与科技创新3个维度构建综合评价指标体系,在对复合系统耦合度与耦合协调度进行测算的基础上,通过Moran’s I指数对协调发展水平进行空间自相关性测度,运用固定效应模型对其影响因素进行实证探究。分析结果显示,3个区域协调发展水平集中于[0.4,0.8]之间且整体趋于下降,华北地区协调发展水平最高,东北地区次之,西北地区最低;Moran’s I指数由0.395波动降至0.293,表明3个区域协调发展水平存在空间集聚状态但空间自相关性呈减弱态势;交通运输、仓储和邮政业生产总值与耦合协调度呈负相关,企业R&D经费投入、地方财政教育支出与耦合协调度呈正相关。最后,根据上述结论提出启示建议。

Based on data from 13 provinces(autonomous regions or municipalities) in Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China from 2011 to 2020, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system in terms of transportation, green economy, and scientific and technological innovation and calculated the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the composite system. On this basis, the paper measured the spatial autocorrelation of the coordinated development level by Moran’s I index and conducted empirical research on its infuencing factors by using a fixed-effect model. The results show that the coordinated development level of Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China is concentrated in [0.4, 0.8] and tends to decline as a whole. North China has the highest coordinated development level and is followed by Northeast China, with Northwest China being the lowest. Moran’s I index decreases from 0.395 to 0.293, which indicates that there is a spatial agglomeration in terms of the coordinated development level of the three areas. However, spatial autocorrelation tends to be weak. The gross regional product of transportation, storage, and post industries is negatively correlated to the coupling coordination degree, while the R&D investment of enterprises and the local financial education expenditure are positively correlated to the coupling coordination degree. Finally, based on the above conclusions, some suggestions were put forward.