临界贫困家庭的贫困脆弱性测度及纾缓思考

Estimation and Mitigation on the Poverty Vulnerability of Critical Poverty Households

2020年,我国实现了脱贫攻坚全面胜利,巩固脱贫成果和防范脱贫人口返贫成了政策关注的新重点.论文以临界贫困家庭作为研究主体,使用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2019年数据,借助VEP测度法构建了贫困脆弱性指标,据此计算临界贫困家庭的返贫风险以及脱离临界贫困的概率.研发发现:18.82%的临界贫困家庭具有50%以上的返贫概率,54.85%的临界贫困家庭具有50%以上的脱离临界贫困的可能性.最后,基于提升金融素养的视角提出相应政策建议,即开展针对性的金融教育和培训、鼓励金融机构设计临界贫困群体专属产品和辅导临界贫困群体开展创业经营.

A comprehensive victory in poverty alleviation was achieved in China in 2020.However,the consolidation of the achievements of poverty alleviation and the prevention of the people out of poverty from returning to poverty have become a new focus of policy attention.This paper takes the critically poor households as the research subject.Specifically,based on the 2019 data of the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),it used the VEP measurement method to construct the poverty vulnerability index.Then it estimates the critically poor household's risk of returning to poverty and the probability of escaping from critical poverty.This research found that 18.82%of the critical poor households have a probability of returning to poverty of more than 50%,and 54.85%of the critical poor households have a probability of escaping from critical poverty of more than 50%.Finally,based on the perspective of improving financial literacy,the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations,that is,to carry out targeted financial education and training,encourage financial institutions to design exclusive products for critical poor groups and guide critical poor groups to carry out entrepreneurship.