总云量实况分析产品在四川省的检验分析

Validation of real-time analysis products in total cloud cover in Sichuan province

利用2019年四川省41个国家地面气象观测站定时人工观测总云量资料,从多方面对国家气象信息中心研制的总云量实况分析产品进行检验。结果表明:不同空间匹配方法的评估结果存在一定差异。实况分析产品能反映总云量的变化,但较地面人工观测值偏低。实况分析产品对四川省总云量有较好的判识能力,夏半季准确率高于冬半季,四川盆地内云判识准确率高于川西高原和攀西地区。从总云量分量级检验来看,晴天时一致率最高,误差最小,而阴天准确率最高。

Based on the total cloud cover data observed by 41 national ground meteorological observation stations in Sichuan province in 2019,the total cloud cover real-time analysis products developed by National Meteorological Information Center were validated from various aspects.The results show that there are some differences in the evaluation results of different spatial matching methods.The real-time analysis products can reflect the variation of total cloud cover,but its value is lower than the ground human observations.The real-time analysis products have a good ability to identify the total cloud cover in Sichuan province,the accuracy rate in summer is higher than that in winter,and the accuracy rate in Sichuan Basin is higher than that in the Western Sichuan Plateau and Panxi Region.From the test of the total cloud cover component level,the consistency rate is the highest,the error is the smallest on sunny days,and the accuracy rate is the highest on cloudy days.