外在压力与内在激励:老龄化背景下地方政府的财政选择

External Pressure and Internal Motivation:Fiscal Choices of Local Government in the Context of Aging

在人口老龄化背景下,地方政府的财政支出选择存在外在压力和内在激励。在理论分析人口老龄化影响地方财政支出偏好的作用机制基础上,采用中国省级财政数据检验老龄化背景下地方财政选择偏好。研究结果表明:地方政府财政支出是提高社会福利支出的外在压力和增强地方财政可持续性的内在激励的多路径效应结果,这种影响效应具有财政自给率和老龄化程度的非对称性。为了实现地方财政可持续性和有效应对老龄化社会的公众诉求压力,有必要尽快完善地方政府考核体系,完善地方公共支出的需求表达机制,改善当前财政支出责任地方化的状态。

Under the background of population aging, there are external pressure and internal motivation in the choice of fiscal expenditure of local government. This paper theoretically analyzes the mechanism of population aging affecting local fiscal expenditure preference, and uses Chinese provincial fiscal data to test local fiscal choice preference under the background of aging. The results show that local government fiscal expenditure is the result of multi-path effect of increasing external pressure of social welfare expenditure and enhancing sustainable internal motivation of local finance, and this effect has asymmetry of fiscal self-sufficiency rate and aging degree. In order to realize the sustainability of local finance and effectively respond to the pressure of public demands in an aging society, it is necessary to improve the assessment system of local government as soon as possible, improve the demand expression mechanism of local public expenditure, and improve the current state of localization of fiscal expenditure responsibility.