基于二维云模型的尾矿库溃坝破坏性研究

Research on Destructiveness of Dam Failure of Tailings Reservoirs Based on Two-Dimensional Cloud Model

为准确评估尾矿库溃坝后泥石流对下游构筑物的冲击破坏概率与破坏严重程度,依据尾矿库自身溃坝灾害特性、溃坝后泥石流流变特性与仿真模拟技术,构建了针对桥梁工程的冲击作用风险评估体系。基于该体系,结合二维云模型理论生成概率云与严重程度云:先基于信息熵获取权重,再基于逆向云模型生成评价云图,基于标准云模型生成左右半云,最终通过云相似度确定评价云与标准云相似性,并与权值结合得到各尾矿库实际安全状况。以受溃坝泥石流冲击破坏作用的桥梁工程为例进行实证研究后得出,该风险评估指标体系实用性强,后二维云模型能够修正传统云模型直接去除区间断点处数据的不足,提高评价结果准确性与风险评估过程的全面性。

This study is designed to accurately assess the probability of impact damage to downstream structures caused by debris flows after the dam failure of tailings reservoirs and the severity of the damage. Specifically, an impact risk assessment system for bridge projects was constructed according to the characteristics of the dam failure disaster of tailings reservoirs, the rheological characteristics of the debris flow after dam failure, and simulation technology. On the basis of this system, the two-dimensional(2 D) cloud model theory was employed to generate the probability cloud and the severity cloud. For this purpose, weights were obtained with information entropies. Then, the evaluation cloud map was generated by the backward cloud model, and the left and right half clouds were generated by the standard cloud model. Finally, the similarity between the evaluation cloud and the standard cloud was determined by cloud similarity, and the actual safety status of each tailings reservoir was obtained by investigating the weights. A bridge project under impact damage by the debris flow after dam failure was discussed as an example of empirical research. The results show that the proposed risk assessment index system is highly practical, and the improved 2 D cloud model can correct the weakness of the traditional cloud model that it directly removes the data at the interval breakpoint and thereby enhance the accuracy of the evaluation results and the comprehensiveness of the risk assessment process.