绿色金融与绿色科技耦合协调发展--理论机制与演化特征

Coupling Coordination of Green Finance and Green Technology--Theoretical Mechanisms and Evolutionary Features

绿色金融与绿色科技深度耦合、协调发展是“双碳”背景下坚持金融服务实体经济的必然要求。本文在梳理二者交互耦合理论机制基础上,利用Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数和空间马尔可夫链测度2010~2020年中国30省(区、市)绿色金融与绿色科技耦合协调度的时空演化特征。研究发现:(1)耦合协调度呈东高西低、东快西慢的分布格局,结构由“金字塔”型转变为“橄榄”型,中间水平省(区、市)占主导;基尼系数呈加速增长的“J”型趋势,总体差异主要来源是:区域间>区域内>超变密度;(2)耦合协调度呈空间正相关且集聚程度不断增强。高-高集聚出现在长三角地区,低-低集聚的省(区、市)位于西部和东北地区;(3)空间马尔科夫链分析更新了基于传统马尔科夫链的研究结论:状态演进不仅存在“锁定”效应,还会受到邻近地区的“空间拖拽”,表现出“俱乐部趋同”现象。应强化空间治理,完善耦合协调发展的溢出通道建设,更好地实现绿色金融与绿色科技有效结合。

The deep coupling and coordinated development of green finance and green technology is an inevitable requirement to adhere to the issue of financial services for the real economy in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.On the basis of sorting out the theoretical mechanism of the interactive coupling between green finance and green technology, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree in 30 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2020 are measured using Dagum Gini coefficient, Moran index and spatial Markov chain.The results show that:(1)the distribution pattern is high in the east and low in the west, fast in the east and slow in the west, and the structure changes from“pyramid”to“olive”,with the middle level provinces dominating;The Gini coefficient shows an accelerating“J”trend, and the main sources of overall variation are: inter-regional>intra-regional>hypervariable density.(2)The distribution is spatially positively autocorrelated and the agglomeration effect is increasing;H-H agglomeration occurs in the Yangtze River Delta region, and L-L agglomeration provinces are located in the west and northeast.(3)Spatial Markov chain updates the findings of studies based on traditional Markov chains: The state leap not only has a“locking”effect, but also suffers from“spatial drag”from neighboring provinces, showing a“club convergence”phenomenon.Strengthen spatial governance, improve overflow channels for coupled and coordinated development, and better realize the effective combination of green finance and green technology.