兼顾金融稳定的财政货币政策调控取向研究

Research on the Fiscal and Monetary Policy Orientation with the Target of Financial Stability

当金融体系无法维持平稳运行状态,实体经济也会因其中介功能的失调而受到损害。因此,维护经济金融的双重稳定是当前阶段我国宏观经济调控的重要议题。本文将金融周期作为金融稳定的衡量依据纳入财政和货币政策规则,通过构建包含金融稳定目标的财政和货币政策反应函数模型与数值模拟分析,实证考察了兼顾金融稳定的财政和货币政策在维护经济金融双重稳定方面的作用。研究表明,适度盯住金融稳定的财政和货币政策有助于降低多个政策目标的波动性,从而促进经济与金融的双重稳定。但多重政策目标的冲突与不同政策目标适度调控区间的差异性突显了单一政策的局限性,如何加强各方政策的统筹与协作、动态平衡不同政策目标与政策反应力度,是决策当局需要权衡的重要问题。

When the financial system cannot maintain a stable operation,the real economy will also be damaged due to the imbalance of its intermediary function.Therefore,maintaining the dual stability of economy and finance is an important topic of macroeconomic regulation in China at the current stage.This paper takes the financial cycle as the measurement basis of financial stability into the rules of fiscal and monetary policy.By constructing the response function model of fiscal and monetary policy including financial stability objectives and numerical simulation analysis,the paper empirically examines the role of fiscal and monetary policies with the target of financial stability in maintaining economic and financial stability.The research shows that the fiscal and monetary policies that are moderately pegged to financial stability can help reduce the volatility of multiple policy objectives,thus promoting the dual stability of economy and finance.However,the conflict of multiple policy objectives and the difference in the appropriate control range of different policy objectives highlight the limitations of a single policy.How to strengthen the coordination and coordination of policies of all parties and dynamically balance different policy objectives and policy responses is an important issue that the decision-making authorities need to weigh.