中国从中亚进口农产品的贸易边际及其影响因素研究

Research on Trade Margins of China’s Agricultural Imports from Central Asia and Its Determinants

中亚是我国农产品进口的重要区域,采用联合国贸易数据库(UN COMTRADE)HS-6分位贸易数据测算了1992-2020年中国从中亚进口农产品的贸易边际,并进一步分析了各贸易边际的影响因素。研究表明,第一,不同贸易边际对中国从中亚农产品进口份额的贡献存在较大国别差异,整体上,中国从中亚农产品进口份额增长是由数量边际驱动的。中国从哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦进口份额增长先后受扩展边际和数量边际增长的驱动;从塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦进口份额增长几乎完全依赖于数量边际的增长;从乌兹别克斯坦进口份额的增长则是扩展边际和价格边际共同提升促成的,但这一趋势正在减弱。第二,近年来中国从中亚进口小麦和油脂产品持续增长,进一步挖掘其进口潜力对于中国重要农产品供给保障战略具有重要意义。第三,从影响因素看,地理距离和加入上海合作组织对扩展边际有显著正向作用,中国对外投资存量与中亚五国农业生产效率的交互项对市场份额和价格边际有显著正向作用。准确把握贸易边际增长结构能令贸易政策的选择更加有的放矢。未来中国作为需求方应发挥更大的主观能动性,注重以对外投资等方式促进中亚五国农业生产能力的提高、积极发挥双边贸易协定作用,实现中亚五国农业发展和中国进口多元化战略的双赢。

In this paper,trade margins of China’s agricultural imports from five Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2020 are estimated by using the HS-6 data in the UN COMTRADE database,and its determinants of different margins are further analyzed.The results show that the contribution of different trade margins to China’s import share of agricultural products from Central Asia varies greatly from country to country.In general,the increase of China’s import share of agricultural products from Central Asia is mainly driven by the quantity margin.The increase of China’s import share from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are driven by the extensive margin and quantity margin consecutively.The increase of import share from Tajikistan and Turkmenistan almost completely depends on the increase of quantity margin.The increase in the share of imports from Uzbekistan is caused by the increase of both the extensive margin and the price margin,but this trend is weakening.Moreover,in recent years,China’s import of wheat and oil products from Central Asia continues to grow and further tapping its import potential is of great significance to China’s strategy of ensuring the supply of important agricultural products.Additionally,from the perspective of influencing factors,geographical distance and joining Shanghai Cooperation Organization have a significant positive effect on extensive margin,and the interaction term between China’s foreign investment stock and agricultural production efficiency of five countries in Central Asia has a significant positive effect on market share and price margin. An improved understanding of the growth sources of the trade margins can benefit target-specific trade policies.In the future,China,as the demand side,should exert greater initiative and focus on promoting the improvement of agricultural production capacity of the Central Asian countries and the implementation of bilateral trade agreements by means of foreign investment,which is a win-win strategy for both the agricultural development in Central Asia and China’s strategic goal of import diversification.