基于定时截尾试验统计方案的城轨列车可靠性验收生产方风险预测

Production Party Risk Prediction During the Reliability Acceptance of Metro Train Based on Statistical Scheme of Timed Truncation Test

为了预测城轨列车在不同可靠性验收方案下的通过概率,引入接收概率函数和生产方风险等指标。根据城轨列车可靠性验收特点,考虑生产方风险多因素量化关系,建立城轨列车可靠性验收生产方风险预测模型。以某城轨列车可靠性验收方案为例,利用生产方风险预测模型,计算4种可靠性验收方案的生产方风险,并对比分析。结果表明,生产方风险预测模型可为城轨列车可靠性验收方案的生产方风险提供预测,也可用于指导列车交付后的可靠性验证工作。

In order to predict the passing probability of the metro train under different reliability acceptance schemes,the acceptance probability function and the production party risk were introduced.According to the characteristics of urban train reliability acceptance,the production party risk prediction model during the reliability acceptance of urban train was established by considering the multi-factor quantitative relationship of production party risk.Taking the reliability acceptance scheme of an urban rail transit train as an example,the risk prediction model of the production side is used to calculate the risk of the production side of four reliability acceptance schemes,and the comparative analysis is made.The results show that the production party risk prediction model can predict the risk of the producer in the reliability acceptance scheme of the urban rail train,and can also be used to guide the reliability verification of the train after delivery.