乌梁素海流域生态系统服务变化与驱动力分析

The Analysis of Change of Ecosystem Services and Driving Factors in Ulansuhai Basin

乌梁素海流域作为中国重要的粮食产区和北方生态屏障,其区域生态—社会—经济可持续发展至关重要。运用回归分析对土壤保持、碳储量、产水量、食物供给与水质净化在2000—2010年、2010—2018年、2000—2018年的服务变化和空间变化格局进行分析,在流域尺度上探讨降水、气温、坡度、植被覆盖度等因素对各项服务的影响。结果表明:乌梁素海流域生态系统服务土壤保持最大的影响因素是坡度、植被覆盖度和森林、草地、耕地面积,碳储量最大的影响因素是第三产业产值和各类用地面积,产水量最大的影响因素是降水、建设用地和未利用地面积,食物供给最大的影响因素是第一产业产值、耕地面积和人口密度;耕地面积、第一产业产值和人口密度对水质净化影响较大。通过识别研究区的主导驱动因素和驱动机制,有助于掌控生态系统服务的变化规律,优化生态管理对策,为生态保护政策的可持续实施提供科学依据。

As an important grain production area and the ecological barrier in the north China, the Ulansuhai Basin is of vital importance for its regional ecological-social-economic sustainable development. Using regression analysis to analyze the service change and spatial change pattern of soil conservation, carbon storage, water yield, food supply and water purification in 2000-2010, 2010-2018 and 2000-2018, and discusses the impact of precipitation, temperature, slope, vegetation coverage and other factors on various services on the watershed scale. The results show that the biggest influencing factors for soil conservation in Ulansuhai Basin are slope, vegetation coverage and the proportion of forest, grassland, and arable land;the biggest influencing factor for carbon storage is the proportion of tertiary industry and various land areas;the biggest influencing factors for water production are the precipitation and proportions of construction land and unused land;the biggest influencing factors for food supply are the primary industry, the proportion of arable land and population density;the biggest influencing factors for water purification are the proportion of arable land, the primary industry and population density. By identifying the leading driving factors and driving mechanisms in the study area, it will help to control the change law of ecosystem services, optimize ecological management countermeasures, and provide a scientific basis for the sustainable implementation of ecological protection policies.