基于Bayes和SWOT的跨流域调水生态补偿受偿意愿及激励机制研究

Study on Willingness to Accept and Incentive Mechanism of Inter-basin Water Transfer Ecological Compensation Based on BEYS and SWOT

水源区居民是水资源保护的贡献者,对水源区公众受偿意愿(WTA)的理性评估,是构建生态补偿机制的关键问题之一。通过理论探索、实地调研和模型分析,以南水北调东线水源区扬州市为例,开展跨流域调水生态补偿的WTA值及影响因素的分析研究。结果表明:在442份有效样本中,居民具有受偿意愿的比例为75.11%,采用非参数法和参数法综合评估得出WTA均值为443.29元/(人·年);基于贝叶斯网络模型分析公众WTA的影响因素,得到年龄、对当前生活用水水质的满意程度、工程给个人带来的影响对WTA影响显著;最后采用SWOT矩阵分析法从内部公众背景、外部环境政策等角度,对构建跨流域调水水源区的生态补偿机制提出激励机制。研究可以为跨流域调水生态补偿机制的构建和完善提供参考。

Residents in water-source areas are contributors to water conservation, rational evaluation of the public’s willingness to accept(WTA) in the water-source area is one of the key problems in constructing ecological compensation mechanism. Based on theoretical exploration, field investigation and model analysis, the WTA value and influencing factors of ecological compensation of inter-basin water transfer project were analyzed in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, the watersource area of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. In the 442 valid samples, the proportion of residents with the intention to receive compensation was 75.11%, the WTA value was 449.30 RMB/(person·year) obtained through the combination of non-parametric and parametric methods. Based on the Bayesian network model, the influencing factors of WTA were analyzed, and the results showed that age, satisfaction degree of current domestic water quality, and the impact of the project on individuals had significant impacts on WTA. Finally, SWOT matrix analysis method was adopted to put forward policy suggestions for the construction of ecological compensation mechanism in the inter-basin water transfer source areas from the perspectives of internal public background and external environmental policies. The research has certain reference and promotion function for adjusting the interest relation between water-diversion area and waterreceiving area and perfecting the ecological compensation mechanism of inter-basin water transfer project.