西部内陆自贸区的经济增长效应研究:基于合成控制法

A Study on the Economic Growth Effect of the Western Inland Pilot Free Trade Zones: Based on Synthetic Control Method

本文基于2014年第1季度~2019年第2季度的省级季度面板数据,采用合成控制法研究西部内陆自贸区的经济增长效应,并采用安慰剂检验和双重差分法对实证结果进行稳健性检验。研究发现:西部自贸区对地区经济增长具有显著的正效应,影响效应呈现先增强后减弱的趋势;经济增长效应存在地区差异性,四川和陕西的自贸区表现出显著的经济增长正效应,重庆自贸区的经济增长效应不明显。建议西部内陆自贸区采取多种举措进一步提升经济增长效应,同时结合各地的资源禀赋和区域特色,充分发挥试验田效应,扩大自贸区的溢出效应。

Based on the provincial quarterly panel data from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2019, this paper uses the Synthetic Control Method to study the economic growth effect of the western inland pilot free trade zones, and uses the placebo test and Difference-in-difference to test the robustness of the empirical results. The results show that: the Pilot Free Trade Zones have a significant positive effect on regional economic growth, and the impact shows a trend of“strengthening first and then weakening”. There are regional differences in the economic growth effect of the western inland pilot free trade zones. Sichuan and Shanxi Pilot Free Trade Zones show significant positive economic growth effects, but the economic growth effect of the Chongqing Pilot Free Trade Zone is not obvious. It is suggested that the western inland pilot free trade zones should take multiple measures to further improve their economic growth effect, and at the same time, combine the resource endowments and regional characteristics of each region to give full play to the experimental field effect and expand their spillover effect.