基于灰色模型的广西高等医学院校研究生培养规模预测分析

Prediction and analysis of postgraduate training scale in Guangxi medical colleges and universities based on grey model

目的:通过对广西高等医学院校研究生培养现状及相关紧缺医学专业培养状况分析及预测,为广西高等医学院校研究生培养提供科学依据。方法:收集2011—2020年广西4所高等医学院校招生及在校生数据、全区国家级住培基地情况,采用描述性统计及GM(1,1)灰色模型对广西高等医学院校研究生培养整体情况及发展趋势进行预测分析,并以广西医科大学为例,分析紧缺医学专业研究生导师数量情况。结果:广西高等医学院校研究生在校生人数呈逐年增长的趋势,且增长幅度较大;相关紧缺医学专业研究生招生数及导师数不足。结论:广西高等医学院校研究生招生规模不断扩大,应保持招生规模稳步增长的同时进一步优化学科专业结构,加强相关紧缺医学专业研究生的培养力度。

Objective:To provide scientific basis for postgraduate training in Guangxi medical colleges and universities by analyzing and predicting the current situation of postgraduate training and relevant medical specialty training urgently required in Guangxi medical colleges and universities.Methods:The enrollment and postgraduate students in four Guangxi medical colleges and universities as well as the situation of the national residency training bases in the region from 2011 to 2020 were collected.Descriptive statistics and GM(1,1)gray model were used to predict and analyze the overall situation and development trend of postgraduate training in Guangxi medical colleges and universities.Meanwhile,the number of shortage of postgraduate instructors of medical specialties was analyzed with Guangxi Medical University as an example.Results:The number of postgraduate students enrolled in Guangxi medical colleges and universities showed a trend of year-on-year growth with a large increasing range,while the number of enrollment and tutors of postgraduate students in relevant urgently required medical specialties were insufficient.Conclusion:The enrollment scale of postgraduate students in Guangxi medical colleges and universities is expanding continuously,so it is necessary to further optimize the structure of disciplines and specialties as well as strengthen the training of postgraduate students in relevant urgently required medical specialties while maintaining the steady growth of the enrollment scale.