人工智能的就业效应再评估——基于产业溢出与空间溢出的视角

Reevaluation of Employment Effect of Artificial Intelligence: From the Perspective of Industrial Spillover and Spatial Spillover

以实现高质量发展下的更充分就业为出发点,本文基于2006—2018年中国258个地级及以上城市面板数据,通过划分人工智能发展的中心城市和外围城市,从产业溢出和空间溢出的视角重新评估人工智能的就业效应。研究发现:(1)中心城市人工智能通过提高制造业和服务业的关联性、与服务业深度融合,对服务业就业存在正向的产业溢出效应;(2)中心城市人工智能发展为外围城市就业带来显著正向的空间溢出效应。人工智能发展并未引起中心城市就业减少,反而通过空间溢出效应扩大了就业总量。因此,要加快推动服务业智能化发展,通过产业溢出效应创造充足的新就业岗位;继续推进人工智能发展,构建人工智能多中心发展格局。本文基于产业溢出和空间溢出的视角,拓展了人工智能影响就业的相关研究,为推动人工智能发展、扩大就业容量提供政策启示。

This paper reevaluates the employment effect of AI from the perspective of industrial spillover and spatial spillover by dividing the central cities and peripheral cities of AI development.It is found that: First, AI in central cities has a positive industrial spillover effect on the employment of service industry by improving the correlation between manufacturing industry and service industry and deep integration with service industry, which is concentrated in high-end service industry;Second, the development of AI in central cities has brought significant positive spatial spillover effect to the employment of peripheral cities.The development of AI has not caused the reduction of employment in central cities, but has expanded the total employment through the spatial spillover effect.Therefore, we should accelerate the intelligent development of service industry to create sufficient new jobs through the industrial spillover effect, continue to promote the development of AI and build a multi-center development pattern of AI.Based on the perspective of industrial spillover and spatial spillover, this paper expands the relevant research on the impact of AI on employment, providing policy inspiration for promoting AI development and expanding employment capacity.