数字经济背景下中国对RCEP成员国直接投资的影响因素与潜力研究

A Study on the Influencing Factors and Potential of Chinese Direct Investment in RCEP Countries in the Context of Digital Economy

RCEP(区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)的签署对经济全球化新格局具有重要意义,也为中国推进更高水平开放带来新契机,与此同时当今数字经济的全球化发展趋势引发了国际合作的热潮,对直接投资的影响不容忽视。结合数字经济迅速发展的新背景,从投资东道国特征的角度,探究中国对RCEP成员国直接投资的影响因素与投资潜力,对调整投资策略、推进数字经济对外投资合作具有重要意义。本文基于RCEP14个成员国2007-2020年的面板数据,运用拓展引力模型就中国对RCEP成员国直接投资的影响因素与投资潜力进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)中国对RCEP成员国的直接投资受到多方面因素的影响,其中东道国数字化水平、东道国GDP、双边贸易额能够有效吸引中国直接投资,而东道国的自然资源租金、通胀水平以及两国地理距离抑制了中国对其直接投资;(2)中国对RCEP各国的投资潜力存在显著差异,投资潜力成长型与投资潜力挖掘型的伙伴国家占比较高,表明中国对RCEP成员国直接投资潜力空间巨大,仍待进一步实现和挖掘。

The signing of RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)is of great significance to the new pattern of economic globalization, and also brings new opportunities for China to promote a higher level of opening up.At the same time, the globalization trend of today’s digital economy has triggered an upsurge of international cooperation, and its impact on direct investment cannot be ignored.Combining with the new background of rapid development of digital economy, it is important to explore the influencing factors and investment potential of Chinese direct investment in RCEP member countries from the perspective of investment host country characteristics to adjust investment strategies and promote foreign investment cooperation in digital economy.Based on the panel data of 14 RCEP member countries from 2007 to 2020,this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors and investment potential of China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries by using the extended gravity model.The research results show that:(1)China’s direct investment in RCEP member countries is affected by various factors, among which the digitalization level, GDP and bilateral trade of the host country can effectively attract Chinese direct investment, while the natural resource rent, inflation level of the host country, and geographical distance between the two countries inhibit Chinese direct investment in them;(2)there are significant differences in China’s investment potential in RCEP countries, and the proportion of partner countries with growth investment potential and pending investment potential is high, indicating that China has great direct investment potential in RCEP member countries, which still needs to be further realized and explored.