嘉峪关市气温和相对湿度对儿童手足口病的影响及其交互作用分析

Influence and interactive effects of air temperature and humidity on hand,foot and mouth disease of children in Jiayuguan City

目的了解气温、相对湿度与儿童手足口病发病的相关性,以及气温、相对湿度的效应是否存在交互作用。方法采用广义相加模型结合分布滞后非线性模型,利用Z检验方法分析2008—2016年嘉峪关市气温、相对湿度对儿童手足口病发病的影响及其交互作用。结果气温与手足口病的发病呈非线性关系,呈不规则“M”型。当气温在0~14℃时及气温>24℃时,发病风险随着气温的升高而逐渐下降。当气温在15~24℃时,气温每增加1℃,0~14岁儿童手足口病的发病风险即增加15.48%。相对湿度对儿童手足口病发病人数呈非线性影响,当相对湿度≤80%时,每下降1个百分点,相应的发病风险增加17.30%。当相对湿度≤80%、气温>20℃时,气温的效应显著,气温每升高1℃,相应的儿童手足口病发病率增加13.69%,0~5岁儿童发病风险增加17.06%。结论气温与相对湿度对儿童手足口病的影响存在交互作用,高温干燥(气温>20℃、相对湿度≤80%)可增加儿童手足口病的发病风险。

Objective To examine how daily average temperature and relative humidity are correlated with the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in children,and whether there is an interaction between the influence of temperatures and relative humidity.Methods Using generalized additive model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model,analyzing the influence of temperatures and relative humidity on the incidence of HFMD in children in Jiayuguan City from 2008 to2016 and their interaction.Results The correlation between average temperatures and the incidence of HFMD was nonlinear in an irregular“M”shape.At 0~14℃or>24℃,the incidence risk decreased with the increase in temperatures.At 15~24℃,the incidence risk in children aged 0~14 increased by 15.48%for every 1°C increased in the average air temperatures.Additionally,there was also a nonlinear correlation between the daily average relative humidity and the HFMD incidence in children.When the relative humidity was≤80%,the incidence risk of HFMD in children increased by 17.30%for every 1%decline in relative humidity.When the daily average relative humidity was≤80%,and temperature was>20℃,the influence of temperatures was significant.For every 1℃increase in temperatures,the incidence of HFMD increased by 13.69%and that in children aged 0~5 increased by 17.06%.Conclusion The influence of temperature and relative humidity on HFMD in children interacts with each other.Temperature>20℃,relative humidity≤80%can increase the risk of HFMD in children.