乡村振兴背景下福建省财政支农对粮食产量的影响研究

Influence of Fiscal Support to Agriculture on Grain Yield in Fujian Province under the Background of Rural Revitalization

保障粮食安全、稳定粮食产量是乡村振兴战略中不可或缺的一环。财政支农作为中国推动农业和农村经济发展的主要方式之一,有效助力乡村振兴。基于1997—2020年福建省财政支农支出与粮食产量的相关数据,对变量进行单位根检验、多重共线性检验与修正,以及协整检验并构建多元线性回归模型,探讨福建省财政支农支出与粮食产量是否存在长期稳定关系以及财政支农支出对粮食产量的影响。研究发现,财政支农支出、粮食种植面积、化肥投入与粮食产量存在长期稳定的均衡关系,其中财政支农支出、粮食种植面积对粮食产量呈现出显著的正向影响,均会促进粮食增产,化肥投入对粮食增产作用不明显。基于此,政府应长期加大财政支农支出,调整支出结构,加强对财政支农监督管理等促进粮食增产。

Ensuring food security and stabilizing food production is an indispensable part of the rural revitalization strategy. As one of the main ways to promote the development of agriculture and rural economy,financial support for agriculture effectively helps rural revitalization. Based on the relevant data of fiscal expenditure on supporting agriculture and grain production in Fujian province from 1997 to 2020, unit root test, multicollinearity test and correction, cointegration test were carried out, and a multiple linear regression model was constructed to explore whether there is a long-term stable relationship between fiscal expenditure on supporting agriculture and grain production in Fujian province and the impact of fiscal expenditure on grain production. It was found that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between fiscal expenditure on agriculture, grain planting area, chemical fertilizer input and grain output. Among them, fiscal expenditure on supporting agriculture, grain planting area and grain output show a significant positive impact,which promote grain production. The effect of chemical fertilizer input on grain production is not obvious.Based on this, the government should increase the expenditure of financial support for agriculture in the long run, adjust the expenditure structure, and strengthen the supervision and management of financial support for agriculture, so as to promote grain production.