1981—2020年新疆南北疆气温和降水变化特征分析

Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation in Northern and Southern Xinjiang from 1981 to 2020

[目的]分析全球变暖背景下新疆的气温与降水演变趋势。[方法]利用新疆20个城市气象站点1981—2020年逐月气温和降水资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Anusplin模型、R/S分析等方法系统分析新疆近40年的气候变化特征以及未来气候变化趋势。[结果]近40年新疆年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,增温速率达到0.33℃/10 a,在1997年发生增温突变。近40年南疆平均气温明显高于北疆地区,且南北疆年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,南疆地区增温幅度整体大于北疆地区;北疆地区年降水量远大于南疆地区,且南北疆年降水量整体呈增加趋势,北疆降水量增加速率大于南疆地区。近40年新疆年降水量变化速率为7.44 mm/10 a,夏季降水量增速较快,2000年为降水增多的转折点。未来新疆的年平均气温整体气温呈较弱的下降趋势,年降水量呈现较强的下降趋势。[结论]近40年新疆气候演变是呈暖湿化趋势。

[Objective]To analyze the evolution trend of temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang under the background of global warming.[Method]Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data of 20 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1981 to 2020,the climate change characteristics and future climate change trends in Xinjiang in recent 40 years were explored by using linear trend estimation method,Mann-Kendall catastrophe test,Anusplin model,R/S analysis and other methods.[Result]The annual average temperature in Xinjiang had shown a significant upward trend in recent 40 years,and the warming rate had reached 0.33℃/10 a,the sudden change of temperature increase occurred in 1997.In recent 40 years,the average temperature in southern Xinjiang was significantly higher than that in Northern Xinjiang,and the annual average temperature in both northern and southern Xinjiang showed a significant upward trend.The temperature increase in southern Xinjiang was larger than that in Northern Xinjiang as a whole.The annual precipitation in Northern Xinjiang was much greater than that in southern Xinjiang,and the annual precipitation in northern and southern Xinjiang showed an increasing trend as a whole.The increasing rate of precipitation in Northern Xinjiang was greater than that in southern Xinjiang.The annual precipitation change rate of Xinjiang in recent 40 years was 7.44 mm/10 a,the precipitation growth rate in summer was relatively fast,and 2000 was the turning point of precipitation increase.In the future,the overall annual average temperature in Xinjiang will show a weak downward trend,and the annual precipitation will show a strong downward trend.[Conclusion]The climate evolution in Xinjiang in recent 40 years has shown a warm and humid trend.