全球产业链与能源供应链重构背景下我国煤炭行业发展策略研究

Development Strategy of China’s Coal Industry under the Reconstruction of Global Industrial Chain and Energy Supply Chain

面对全球产业链与能源供应链(“双链”)加速重构、我国能源供应安全变数明显增长的新形势,充分发挥煤炭的兜底保障作用成为必然选择。本文在系统分析“双链”加速重构呈现特征的基础上,研判了对我国能源领域四方面的影响:能源需求结构波动加大,局部生产能力受限,进口风险提升、低碳转型压力增大。构建了煤炭需求波动预测模型,测算了煤炭为化石能源进口兜底、为可再生能源出力波动兜底、为能源消费超预期增长兜底等保障要求下煤炭产量需求的波动幅度,即2025年煤炭产量需求波动为±14.1%、2030年为±16.5%、2035年为±18.2%。针对性提出了产业链和供应链“强链、补链、延链”,构建煤炭技术创新链的发展路径,以及煤矿智能化建设、煤炭绿色开发与节能减排、煤炭清洁转化、煤矿区碳封存和碳利用技术研发、煤炭与新能源协同发展等重点任务。加大煤炭资源精细勘查力度,强化煤炭储备和应急调运能力建设,提高煤炭柔性供给水平,增强煤制油气兜底保障能力,完善煤炭产业发展政策,以此推动煤炭行业中长期高质量发展。

As the reconstruction of global industrial chain and energy supply chain accelerates and variables in China’s energy supply security increase,it becomes inevitable for China to maximize the guarantee function of coal.Considering the characteristics of the accelerated reconstruction of the two chains,this study analyzes the impacts of the reconstruction on China’s energy sector:large fluctuation of energy demand structure,restricted local production capacity,increased import risks,and increased pressure on lowcarbon transition.A fluctuation prediction model is established to predict the fluctuation range of coal demand considering these scenarios:fluctuation of fossil energy imports,output fluctuation of renewable energies,and consistent growth of energy consumption.The results indicate that coal demand will fluctuate by±14.1% in 2025,±16.5% in 2030,and ±18.2% in 2035,respectively.Therefore,we propose that a coal technology innovation chain should be constructed by extending and improving the coal industrial and supply chains.Moreover,future key tasks should include intelligent construction of coal mines,green development and clean transformation of coal,research and development of carbon sequestration and utilization technology in coal mine areas,and collaborative development of coal and new energies.To promote the long-term high-quality development of the coal industry in China,it is necessary to encourage the fine exploration of coal resources,strengthen the construction of coal reserves and emergency transportation capacities,improve the flexible supply of coal,enhance the support capacity for coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas production,and formulate support policies for coal industry development.