西北地区能源生产消费特征与发展路径研究

Energy Production and Consumption Characteristics and Energy Development Path in Northwest China

西北地区能源资源富集,但存在着能源效率低下、能源结构失配等严峻问题;评估能源发展水平并针对性地设计能源发展路径,对保障西北地区能源安全、提升发展质量具有重要价值。本文从西北地区发展实际出发,深入剖析了区域的能源生产消费水平特征,明晰了能源发展面临的突出问题;综合采用灰色预测方法、多元回归方法预测了2023—2030年的能源发展水平,据此完成了西北地区能源发展路径设计。研究表明,近年来西北地区的能源结构不断优化,可再生能源生产消费水平持续上升,但生产消费比例仍然远低于传统能源,经济、产业、技术问题对能源发展的影响不容忽视。为此建议,以传统能源与新能源相互融合为发展方向,采取持续推进供给革命、消费革命、技术革命、体制革命、交流合作等发展途径,按照多主体协同方式,实施总体能源发展的行动方案,通过能源转型实现西北地区绿色更新发展。

Northwest China is rich in energy resources.However,problems such as low energy efficiency and energy structure mismatch remain.Assessing the energy development level and designing energy development paths are crucial for ensuring energy security and promoting energy development quality in Northwest China.This study analyzed the characteristics of energy production and consumption in Northwest China and clarified the prominent problems in energy development.The gray forecasting and multiple regression methods were used to forecast the energy development level from 2023 to 2030,and the energy development path in Northwest China was designed accordingly.Our results show that in Northwest China,the energy structure has been continuously optimized in recent years,and the production and consumption of renewable energies continued to rise;however,the production and consumption of renewable energies was still far lower than that of traditional energies.In addition,the impact of economic,industrial,and technological issues on energy development is significant.To promote the green renewal and development through energy transition,this study proposed to focus on the integration of traditional and new energies,adopt development methods such as supply revolution,consumption revolution,technological revolution,institutional revolution,exchange and cooperation,and implement an energy development action plan using a multi-subject collaborative approach.