基于队列要素方法的“北上广深”户籍人口性别比预测

Prediction of sex ratio of registered population in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen based on queue element method

城市人口性别结构失衡对城市经济可持续发展具有重要冲击作用,值得关注的是,自2009年上海市户籍人口首次表现出罕见的“女多男少”性别特征后,我国多个超大城市人口性别结构也接连出现“女多男少”的现象。以北京、上海、广州和深圳四座超大城市作为研究对象,测算不同生育方案和出生人口性别比水平下其户籍人口性别比未来趋势,并通过分因素贡献率测算户籍人口自然变动和迁移变动对其性别比失衡的影响力。结果表明:北上广深四城“女多男少”性别特征近三十年将会持续凸显,且在2050年性别比预估均下降到90左右;而超大城市性别比失衡的主要原因是受到迁移人口性别结构的影响,随着城市人口迁移规模扩张,人口性别比下降也愈加明显。

The imbalance of urban gender structure has an important impact on the sustainable development of urban economy.It is worth noting that since the registered population in Shanghai showed a rare gender feature of"more women than men"for the first time in 2009,the phenomenon of"more women than men"has also appeared in the gender structure of many megacities in China.Taking four megacities of Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the research objects,this paper calculates the future trend of the sex ratio of registered population under different birth plans and birth sex ratios,and calculates the influence of natural changes and migration changes of registered population on the imbalance of sex ratio through the contribution rate of sub-factors.The results show that the gender characteristics of"more women than men"in the four cities of North,Guangzhou,Shenzhen and Shenzhen will continue to be prominent in the past 30 years,and the estimated sex ratio will all drop to about 90 in 2050.The main reason for the imbalance of sex ratio in megacities is the influence of the sex structure of migrants.With the expansion of urban migration scale,the sex ratio of the population decreases more and more obviously.