西部陆海新通道建设的经济增长效应及实现路径——基于合成控制法准自然实验的实证研究

The Economic Growth Effect and Realization Path of New Western Land-sea Corridor--An Empirical Study of Quasi-natural Experiment Based on Synthetic Control Method

文章选取2010年第1季度至2019年第4季度的省级平衡面板数据,利用合成控制法准自然实验检验新通道建设的区域经济增长效应及实现路径,结果发现:2017年8月合作推动新通道前身“南向通道”建设,显著促进了广西、贵州和甘肃的经济增长,但对贵州经济增长的影响相对更稳定、持续性更强;新通道建设影响经济增长的路径存在明显地区差异,除了通过推动固定资产投资增长的共同路径外,对于广西的影响还体现在促进规模以上工业企业资产增长,对于贵州的影响则包括推动规模以上工业企业经营效率提升,而对于甘肃,这两种路径的作用都不明显。根据上述检验结果,文章提出了充分释放新通道建设经济增长效应的建议。

This paper uses synthetic control method quasi-natural experiment to test the regional economic growth influence and realization path of new western land-sea corridor based on the provincial balanced panel data from 2010q1 to 2019q4.The main results are as follows:First,the co-construction of the Southward Corridor(the previous name of new western land-sea corridor)which begun in August 2017 has significantly promoted the eco⁃nomic growth of Guangxi,Guizhou and Gansu provinces,and the impact on Guizhou is relatively more stable and sustainable compared with the other two provinces;second,there are apparent regional differences in the economic growth effect of new western land-sea corridor,and in addition to the common path of positively affecting fixed asset investment in the three provinces,it also promotes the asset growth of industrial enterprises above designated size in Guangxi,and improves the operating efficiency of industrial enterprises above designated size in Guizhou,but the role of these two paths is not obvious for Gansu.Based on the above findings,this paper gives some suggestions aimed at fully releasing the economic growth effects of new western land-sea corridor.