房价、创新投入与区域经济增长

Housing Price,R&D investment and Regional Economic Growth

文章系统分析了创新投入影响区域经济增长与房价影响创新投入的机制,在此基础上提出在房价上涨的趋势下,创新投入影响区域经济增长在不同房价水平下的作用机制差异,并运用面板门槛模型以及我国2003—2019年的省级面板数据进行实证检验。研究表明:(1)创新经费投入与创新人力投入均能够显著促进区域经济增长;而房价的提高会抑制创新经费投入及创新人力投入的增长,且房价对创新人力投入的影响存在双门槛效应,随着房价的上涨,创新人力投入受到的抑制效果逐步增强。(2)创新人力投入对区域经济增长的影响存在房价单门槛效应,随着房价门槛的跨越,创新人力投入对区域经济增长的促进作用变得不显著。(3)根据3个门槛值对各省份的房价进行四阶段划分发现,截至2019年,所有省份已经跨越第一门槛值,此时创新人力投入对区域经济增长的促进作用不再显著。此外,东部地区大部分省份已跨越第三门槛值,即房价最大程度抑制了创新人力资本投入的增长。(4)分区域线性回归结果显示,中西部地区与全国样本的结果大体一致,但东部地区存在明显不同,表现为该地区创新人力投入对区域经济增长不存在显著的促进作用,且该地区的房价上涨没有减少创新经费投入的增长,结合全样本及中西部地区的回归结果可知,房价对创新人力投入的抑制突出存在于东部地区。

This paper systematically analyzes the mechanism of R&D investment affecting regional economic growth and housing price affecting R&D investment,and puts forward the difference of action mechanisms of R&D investment affecting regional economic growth under different housing price levels on the trend of rising housing prices,and makes an empirical test by using the panel threshold model and China’s Provincial Panel Data from 2003 to 2019.The research shows that:(1)R&D expenditure and R&D staff input both can significantly promote re⁃gional economic growth while the rise of housing price will inhibit the growth of R&D expenditure and R&D staff in⁃put,and the impact of housing price on R&D staff input has a double threshold effect-with the rise of housing price,the inhibition effect on R&D staff input will gradually increases;(2)the impact of R&D staff input on regional economic growth has a single threshold effect on housing price,and with the crossing of housing price threshold,the promoting effect of R&D staff input on regional economic growth becomes insignificant;(3)based on the three thresholds,the housing prices of each province(or municipality)are divided into four stages,and resultantly it is found that by 2019,all provinces crossed the first threshold,in which the contribution of R&D staff input to regional economic growth is no longer significant,and in addition,most provinces in the eastern region crossed the third threshold that means housing prices restrained the growth of R&D staff input to the greatest extent;and(4)the sub regional linear regression results show that the central and western regions are roughly the same as those of the na⁃tional sample,but there are obvious differences in the eastern region,which is manifested in that the R&D staff in⁃put in this region does not significantly promote regional economic growth with the rise of housing prices in this re⁃gion not reducing the growth of R&D expenditure,and combined with the regression results of the whole sample and the central and western regions,the inhibition of housing prices on R&D staff input is prominent in the eastern re⁃gion.