基于模糊集合理论的自动雨量站故障树分析方法

Method of automatic rainfall station FTA based on fuzzy set theory

为解决自动雨量站故障排查难度大、维修效率低的问题,提出一种基于模糊集合理论和故障树分析相结合的方法,对自动雨量站故障树进行了定性分析和定量分析。首先,将自动雨量站常见故障进行汇总,建立了一个较为完整的故障树,确定了33种最小割集;其次,针对自动雨量站故障树分析时存在底事件失效概率获取不足的问题,利用德尔菲法评估底事件失效概率的模糊性,再通过三角模糊数和梯形模糊数计算出底事件的失效概率;最后,计算得到自动雨量站顶事件的发生概率以及影响其系统稳定性各底事件的概率重要度排序。通过研究,找出了影响自动雨量站可靠性的薄弱环节,并有针对性地提出重点防控措施,为制定相应的故障诊断和维护策略提供了基础数据支撑。

In order to solve the problems of difficulty in troubleshooting and low maintenance efficiency of the automatic rainfall stations,a method based on fuzzy set theory and combined with FTA(fault tree analysis)is proposed,and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of FTA for automatic rainfall stations are carried out.The common faults in automatic rainfall stationsare summaried to establish a relatively complete fault tree and determine 33 minimum cut sets.In allusion to the problem of insufficient acquisition of the failure probability of the bottom event of FTA of the automatic rainfall station,the Delphi method is used to evaluate the fuzziness of the failure probability of the bottom events,and then the failure probability of the bottom event is calculated by means of the triangular fuzzy number and the trapezoidal fuzzy number.The occurrence probability of the top event and the probability importance degree order of the bottom events affecting the system stability are calculated.The weak parts affecting the reliability of the automatic rainfall station are found by the research,and the targeted prevention and control measures are proposed,which can provide basic data support for formulating corresponding fault diagnosis and maintenance strategies.