基于贝叶斯网络的重大工程知识创新影响机理研究

Research on Influence Mechanism of Megaproject Knowledge Innovation Based on Bayesian Network

重大工程知识创新发挥着促进工程价值共创、助力产业链升级的重要作用,首先,本研究基于文献研究和专家访谈识别出重大工程知识创新影响因素。接着,结合专家知识和Dempster-Shafer理论构建贝叶斯网络,通过敏感性分析和推理预测探索重大工程知识创新的关键影响因素和潜在提升策略。研究结果表明,知识共享、共同愿景和领导力是重大工程知识创新的关键影响因素,重大工程知识创新的最佳提升策略是同时改善资源、领导力和知识共享水平,并据此提出了相应建议。

Megaproj ect knowledge innovation plays an important role in promoting engine ering value co-creation and helping to upgrade the industrial chain.Firstly,this study identifies the factors influencing megaproject knowledge innovation based on literature research and expert interviews.Then,a bayesian network is constructed by combining expert knowledge and Dempster-Shafer theory to explore the key influencing factors and potential enhancement strategies of megaproject knowledge innovation through sensitivity analysis and inference prediction.The results show that knowledge sharing,shared vision and leadership are the key influencing factors of megaproject knowledge innovation,and the best enhancement strategy for megaproject knowledge innovation is to improve the level of resources,leadership and knowledge sharing at the same time, and the corresponding suggestions are made accordingly.