专利网络视角下稀土科技发展的量化情景分析

Quantitative Scenario Analysis on the Development of Rare Earth Science and Technology from the Perspective of Patent Network

稀土永磁是稀土科技发展和产品研发的核心领域,为识别我国稀土科技发展重点并预测未来技术发展趋势,以稀土永磁领域的技术专利为研究对象,将复杂网络分析技术、技术生命周期理论和量化情景方法相结合,对国家知识产权局官网收录的1985年至2020年相关实用新型专利数据进行分析,并预测我国稀土科技的发展趋势。结果表明:未来我国稀土永磁技术领域的发展情景呈现以单一技术领域的快速发展带动产业协调发展为主,以多个技术领域的协同发展带动产业全面发展为辅的格局;单一领域技术带动模式下,电动机、发电机、电载系统等领域快速发展的可能性最大,其次是泵送装置、冷却装置、消音装置等领域,最后是磁疗理疗设备、医疗器械等领域;多技术协同模式下,主要是光学、计量仪器和研磨、抛光机床这两类专利技术领域的协同发展。研究结论为我国稀土产业的高质量发展提供了决策依据。

Rare earth permanent magnets are the core area of rare earth science and technology development and product research and development.In order to identify the focus of China’s rare earth science and technology development and to predict the future technology development trend,taking the technical patents in the field of rare earth permanent magnet as the research object,combining the complex network analysis technology,technology life cycle theory and quantitative scenario method,the relevant utility model patent data collected on the official website of the State Intellectual Property Office from 1985 to 2020 was analyzed to predict the development trend of China’s rare earth science and technology.The results show that the future development scenario of China’s rare earth permanent magnet technology field will be dominated by the coordinated development of industry driven by the rapid development of a single technology field,supplemented by the coordinated development of industry driven by the coordinated development of multiple technology fields.Under the technology driven mode of a single field,motor,generator,electric load system and other fields are most likely to develop rapidly,followed by pumping devices,cooling devices,silencers and other fields,and finally magnetic therapy equipment,medical devices and other fields.Under the mode of multi technology collaboration,it is mainly the collaborative development of two types of patented technology fields,namely optics,measuring instruments and grinding and polishing machine tools.The research conclusion provides a decision-making basis for the high-quality development of China’s rare earth industry.