“双减”意见对K-12校外学科培训类企业价值的影响分析——基于事件研究法

Analysis of the Influence of the "Double Reduction" Opinion on the Value of K-12 Off-campus Discipline Training Enterprises——Study Based on Event Study

本文主要运用事件研究法研究“双减”意见对K-12校外学科培训类企业价值的影响。分析认为,“双减”意见印发时,市场及时做出了反应,政策的重大不利影响造成相关企业的价值显著下降,而且市场对该意见的印发存在提前反应。但是,两个月前“双减”意见审议通过时,市场在事件窗口内几乎没有做出任何反应。综上可以发现,市场对“双减”意见的反应呈现出“临渴掘井”的无序状态,基本分析对收益预测仍可能有用,不支持半强式有效市场假说。这就要求评估机构和评估专业人员在承接相关业务时要认真解读各项法律法规和政策意见,及时准确捕捉政策信号,同时要慎用上市公司比较法。

This paper mainly uses the event study method to study the influence of the "Double Reduction" opinions on the value of K-12 off-campus discipline training enterprises. According to the analysis, when the "Double Reduction" opinion was issued, the market responded in a timely manner, and the significant adverse impact of the policy caused a significant decline in the value of relevant enterprises, and the market responded to the issuance of the opinion in advance. However, when the "Double Reduction" opinion was approved two months ago, the market made little reaction in the event window. To sum up, it can be found that the market reaction to the "Double Reduction" opinion shows a disordered state of "Not make timely preparations". The fundamental analysis may still be useful for earnings prediction, and it does not support the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis. This requires evaluation agencies and evaluation professionals to carefully interpret various laws, regulations and policy opinions when undertaking relevant business, timely and accurately capture policy signals, and carefully use the comparison method of listed companies with caution.