基于接触面积的饮料酒消费量概率评估参数构建研究

Establishment of probability assessment parameters of consumption of alcoholic beverage based on the contact area

目的研究建立不同类型、不同接触材料饮料酒的基于接触面积的消费量数据库,为食品接触材料概率评估提供消费量参数和方法学支持。方法将饮料酒食品接触面积/体积比(S/V)数据和饮料酒消费量数据作为两个独立的分布总体,采用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)模拟方法分别在这两个总体中进行随机抽样并匹配对应类别相乘,得到不同接触材料饮料酒基于接触面积的消费量分布。以上过程模拟1000次得到各统计量的抽样分布,从而量化模型的不确定性。结果按饮料酒-材料组合分类,基于接触面积的消费量均值最高的为啤酒-玻璃,均值为5.500 dm^(2)/d,95%CI为5.302~5.705 dm^(2)/d。按食品接触材料分类,基于接触面积的消费量均值最高的为(铝)涂层,均值为5.213 dm^(2)/d,95%CI为4.929~5.532 dm^(2)/d。结论饮料酒基于接触面积的消费量可以成为我国饮料酒食品接触材料概率评估的基础参数,可用于进行精确的膳食暴露评估。

Objective To support the probabilistic assessment of food contact materials with consumption parameters and methodology,the establishment of consumption data based on food contact area with different types of alcoholic beverages and different food contact materials was studied.Methods Based on probability distribution,food contact surface area/volume ratio(S/V) data and alcoholic beverages consumption data were regarded as two independent distribution populations. Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate the distribution of the food contact area based on consumption data. One thousand rounds of random sampling were conducted in the two populations to quantify the uncertainty.Results Categorized by alcoholic beverages-food contact material,beer-glass had the highest average food contact area based on consumption,with an average of 5. 500 dm^(2)/d and a 95%CI of 5. 302-5. 705 dm^(2)/d. Categorized by food contact material,alcoholic beverages with aluminum coating had the highest average food contact area based on consumption,with an average of 5. 213 dm~2/d and a 95%CI of 4. 929-5. 532 dm~2/d.Conclusion The food contact area based on consumption data of alcoholic beverages can be the basic parameter for the probabilistic assessment of food contact materials of alcoholic beverages in China,which can be used for the accurate dietary exposure assessment.