基于改进型GERT网络的供应链突发事件风险传递研究

Research on Risk Transmission of Emergencies in Supply Chain Based on an Improved GERT Network

突发事件会对供应链运作产生巨大影响,甚至会导致整个网络断裂。针对供应链系统中突发事件的风险传递问题,分别构建了基于GERT网络的供应链正常交付模型、延期交付模型和突发事件风险传递模型,并依据模型结构,推导了相应的矩母函数和传递函数表达式。在模型解析的基础上,设计了供应链突发事件风险传递的定量化分析策略。通过对比供应链正常交付模型和延期交付模型的求解结果,得到各个环节的最终延迟时间;再通过突发事件风险传递模型的拟合计算,进一步定量化描述风险在逐级传递过程中的叠加程度。最后,通过一个汽车供应链网络案例,验证了模型和方法的适用性。

Emergencies can have a huge impact on the supply chain operation, and can even break the entire network. For the risk transmission issue of emergencies in the supply chain system, three models are constructed based on the GERT network, including the supply chain normal delivery model, the supply chain deferred delivery model, and the risk transmission model of emergencies. According to the structure of these models, the corresponding mathematical expressions of moment generating functions and transfer functions are derived. Based on the model analysis, a quantitative analysis strategy of risk transmission for emergencies in supply chain is developed. In this strategy, the final delay time for each link is obtained by comparing the solution results of the supply chain normal delivery model and the supply chain deferred delivery model, the extent to which risk accumulated during step by step transmission is described quantificationally by the fitting calculation of the risk transmission model of emergencies. Finally, a numerical example abstracted from an automobile production supply chain is suggested to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed models and approach.