基于前景理论的建筑高危岗位人岗匹配冲突仿真研究

Simulation Research on Conflicts of Matching Persons and Posts in High-risk Construction Based on Prospect Theory

为了研究建筑高危岗位应聘人员的择岗特征,本文基于前景理论价值函数构建了人员风险岗位选择的元胞自动机模型进行仿真实验,而后对所得实验数据进行层次回归分析。结果表明,选择高危岗位的人员一般具有高估收益、低估事故损失和概率及低损失厌恶的心理特质,这与岗位要求相违背,即存在“高危人岗匹配悖论”;高基本工资、高安全激励和低风险补偿金的组合薪酬模式有助于高危岗位的人岗匹配;选聘对损失持续敏感的人员能有效降低安全风险;提高人员事故概率和损失预期、强化损失厌恶感知也有助于保障安全;针对人员择岗行为,损失厌恶与概率感知之间存在互补效应,而损失效用递减与损失厌恶、概率感知之间存在替代效应。

To study the risk decision-making characteristics of construction workers who choose high-risk posts, a cellular automata model for construction workers’ choosing risky construction posts is built based on the value function of prospect theory for a simulation experiment, then hierarchy regression analysis is carried out on the experiment data acquired. The results show that persons who choose high-risk posts generally have the psychological traits of overestimating returns, underestimating accident losses and probability, and low loss aversion, which is contrary to the post requirements, namely, “person-post matching paradox”. This means that in reality, those who choose to work in high-risk positions are not only prone to overestimate the benefits, but also tend to underestimate the accident probability and loss. However, high-risk jobs require workers to have a stronger sense of risk and a more stable style of behavior to avoid safety risks. The increase of basic salaries may lead more workers, especially workers with diminishing utility with low returns, to choose high-risk posts;and high accident losses, diminishing returns with low loss, loss aversion and sensitization of high probability will prompt workers to choose low-risk posts. Regarding workers’ high-risk post choosing behaviors, there is a complementary effect between loss aversion and probability sensitization, but an substitution effect among loss diminishing and loss aversion and probability sensitization.